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 new charge and movement rules => some Maths

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Fruz
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PostSubject: new charge and movement rules => some Maths   new charge and movement rules => some Maths I_icon_minitimeTue Jul 03 2012, 19:41

As I started on the other topic, I created a little program so that I could calculate probabilities about the charging distance according to many different parameters.
I changed the programm a bit so that it oculd be more accurate :
I was throwing an extra dice and dropping the lowest instead of rerolling the lowest dice for example, it was easier and faster.

I thouhg that this would be interesting, habit will come playing obviously, but having an approximativ idea of what we can "safely" afford is imho worth.

All the tests are made from 1 000 000 rolls of each dice.

Now, let's have the results :

Charging without fleet :

Code:
Probability for 2 -> 2.8032 %
Probability for 3 -> 5.5572 %
Probability for 4 -> 8.3634 %
Probability for 5 -> 11.1164 %
Probability for 6 -> 13.9492 %
Probability for 7 -> 16.523 %
Probability for 8 -> 13.9056 %
Probability for 9 -> 11.1303 %
Probability for 10 -> 8.3255 %
Probability for 11 -> 5.5634 %
Probability for 12 -> 2.7628 %
~=> 28% chances to have LESS than 6", that means it's very random unless you bet on being at least 5" away from you target ( which makes still ~= 17%chances of having less than 5 .... ).
Betting on something like 8ps would make a 58% chances of missing the charge and not being able to assault the target, it's getting kinda suicidal very quickly.


EDIT : sprint + charge not possible in 6th Surprised


Charging with fleet ( one dice rerolled ) :
Thats interests us much more already; as representing real W40k battlefield with maths is difficult, there are 2 differents results :
- the first one rerolls only a dice if its value is below 4.
- the first one rerolls only a dice if its value is below 3.
Code:
Probability for 2 -> 0.4689 %
Probability for 3 -> 1.869 %
Probability for 4 -> 4.1401 %
Probability for 5 -> 6.9887 %
Probability for 6 -> 9.731 %
Probability for 7 -> 12.4908 %
Probability for 8 -> 14.7813 %
Probability for 9 -> 16.1747 %
Probability for 10 -> 16.6874 %
Probability for 11 -> 11.154 %
Probability for 12 -> 5.5141 %
Code:
Probability for 2 -> 0.4603 %
Probability for 3 -> 1.8543 %
Probability for 4 -> 3.6829 %
Probability for 5 -> 5.5676 %
Probability for 6 -> 10.201 %
Probability for 7 -> 14.8175 %
Probability for 8 -> 17.148 %
Probability for 9 -> 18.4998 %
Probability for 10 -> 13.8883 %
Probability for 11 -> 9.2596 %
Probability for 12 -> 4.6207 %

Considering that a safe rush is 90%success rate, in both cases, it would be 5", a 6" rush has 13.35 % / 11.5 % chances of failing.
7" has 25.2 % / 21.5 % chances of failing.
And if a unit of wyches, I think we can consider the squad as a dead squad if they have to stop 2" away from their target.
So basically, that new versions for wyches gives them a 10%chance of failing the charge, and a suicidal way of charging from further away.


EDIT : sprint + charge not possible in 6th Surprised

Here are the pretty "safe" charging distance we can expect then, beyond that, eveything is ruled by random now =/, huge threat to wyches to almost no gain to me, I'm quite okay with it though cause I don't really like wyches, by my Incubbus + Archon are not liking that either, even .. let's say it's less worst lol.


Last edited by Fruz on Thu Jul 05 2012, 16:08; edited 1 time in total
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Enfernux
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PostSubject: Re: new charge and movement rules => some Maths   new charge and movement rules => some Maths I_icon_minitimeTue Jul 03 2012, 20:38

nice.
And this is why my 40 wyches will stay on the shelf, probably with my other DE. We just got a very synergic dex, and now it has been reduced to random factor risk taking.

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Fruz
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PostSubject: Re: new charge and movement rules => some Maths   new charge and movement rules => some Maths I_icon_minitimeTue Jul 03 2012, 20:48

If you choose to sprint with your wyches, betting on 8" is like being 95% sure not to fail, which is less than in the V5 obviously ... I don't understand why they have done that either, I mean, in a plane terrain, what is the point of having various running/charging speed when you are using the same unit ? ><
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StaticVortex
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PostSubject: Re: new charge and movement rules => some Maths   new charge and movement rules => some Maths I_icon_minitimeTue Jul 03 2012, 21:52

Defensive grenades grant wyches steath....better than nothing if stopped 2" away.
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Fruz
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PostSubject: Re: new charge and movement rules => some Maths   new charge and movement rules => some Maths I_icon_minitimeWed Jul 04 2012, 00:08

they are not already in cover, so it's a ... 6+ save according to the rulebook ( or I missed something there ), which changes nothing compared to their original state. A squad of wyches at 2-5" of another one ( which means rapid-fire range as well ) is a dead squad to me.
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Venkh
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PostSubject: Re: new charge and movement rules => some Maths   new charge and movement rules => some Maths I_icon_minitimeWed Jul 04 2012, 00:39

Quote :
A squad of wyches at 2-5" of another one ( which means rapid-fire range as well ) is a dead squad to me.

This was always the case though.

The difference is really marginal.

In 5th we got 12+3+d6+d6 (i was always assaulting into cover) average 22"

In 6th we get 6+6+2D6 with reroll (call it 9) average 21"

In addition to this we can pre-measure so we can proceed knowing what the odds are.

I I have a few issues with the new combat rules (pile ins and Look Out Sir!) but i can deal with this.
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CaptainBalroga
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PostSubject: Re: new charge and movement rules => some Maths   new charge and movement rules => some Maths I_icon_minitimeWed Jul 04 2012, 02:53

Umm..

"Units that Run in the Shooting Phase cannot charge in the following Assault Phase"

Fleet "..can re-roll one or more dice when determining Run moves and charge ranges"

So, no one, not even those with Fleet, can Run and Assault. However, you get to re-roll either of your charge dice, or all three going through cover.

The expected value for our Fleet charge, re-rolling all 3's or less is 8.5" as I have calculated it back-of-the-envelope. The frequency graph should be weighted to the high side, though.


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wilku
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PostSubject: Re: new charge and movement rules => some Maths   new charge and movement rules => some Maths I_icon_minitimeWed Jul 04 2012, 07:35

Just what Balroga said - get rid of the habit of running + charging. It's 6th ED when we are "lightningfast" just like almost any other army :/

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Fruz
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PostSubject: Re: new charge and movement rules => some Maths   new charge and movement rules => some Maths I_icon_minitimeWed Jul 04 2012, 07:44

bad habit >< I'll make the changes on the post later
NB : I mostly read the summary at the end of the book when I was doing my calculations, I should've missed that part at the beginning of the book. But srsly what nonsense is that ? units are able to shoot then charge, but are not able to run instead of shooting and then charge ? WTF ?
anyway I'll check my book tonight when I'll be back and then remove the useless parts of the first post. So it gives us even less changes to reach close combat, great !
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Nomic
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PostSubject: Re: new charge and movement rules => some Maths   new charge and movement rules => some Maths I_icon_minitimeWed Jul 04 2012, 10:57

Previously the safe charge range was about 13-14'' (6''+D6'', giving anything more than 3 extra inches 50% chanse to fail, +6'' ), now you have 90% chanse of getting atleast 15'' (6''+2D6 with reroll one or both, giving 90% chanse to go over 9'' according to your math).

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