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 Nephilim Pack!!

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SCP Yeeman
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sekac
Wych
sekac


Posts : 743
Join date : 2017-06-03

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PostSubject: Re: Nephilim Pack!!   Nephilim Pack!! - Page 2 I_icon_minitimeSun Jun 26 2022, 17:01

fisheyes wrote:
I got to play at a 3 round RTT yesterday, and I got to say our knife-ears are hurting pretty bad. Goodstuff builds will not work with the new mission pack, our damage output is just too low. Im thinking we will need to go back to some sort of Talos/Grotesque style build, but I cant figure it out.

Kinda sucks for us, but I see why GW hit is so hard. We were just too good for too long, and the player base is tired of seeing us do well. Maybe in a few months some of our nerfs will get rolled back, hopefully it wont take a year like AdMech XD

The problem is GW doesn't understand that the meta evolves even when not issuing nerfs. It is also heavily affected by an army getting an updated codex and the meta reaction that causes, and even more so by the new mission packs. Yet they insist on throwing heavy nerfs around, typically at roughly the same time as they release new mission packs. By adhering to this schedule, they ensure there's absolutely no way for them to see the impact any one of the changes in isolation will bring.


It's simultaneously predictable and something they routinely fail to predict. I was very vocal about how unnecessary the last round of nerfs we received were because newer books were already out-damaging our glass cannon army (making as just a glass army), and the Nachmund book was going bring some soft nerfs too. And I was laughed at by several forum members for suggesting Drukhari were going to fall out of the A Tier entirely. And yet that is, quite predictably what happened. 


In short, by simultaneously changing the way the game is played with mission packs AND removing ways for a thin book to adapt to a changing meta, you make the army non-competitive. This incredibly swingy system of making armies way too good and then punishing anyone who is a fan of that army for the next several years because you accidentally wrote too good of a book is just a dumb way to design a game.
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Burnage
Incubi
Burnage


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Join date : 2017-09-12

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PostSubject: Re: Nephilim Pack!!   Nephilim Pack!! - Page 2 I_icon_minitimeMon Jun 27 2022, 20:40

sekac wrote:
It's simultaneously predictable and something they routinely fail to predict. I was very vocal about how unnecessary the last round of nerfs we received were because newer books were already out-damaging our glass cannon army (making as just a glass army), and the Nachmund book was going bring some soft nerfs too. And I was laughed at by several forum members for suggesting Drukhari were going to fall out of the A Tier entirely. And yet that is, quite predictably what happened. 

Can I retrospectively laugh at you again for this opinion? Drukhari did not fall out of A tier pre-Nephilim by any reasonable metric.

Post-Nephilim, I'm less sure. A lot of other factions have gotten some serious boosts here and the elf secondary game is looking relatively shaky. I'd be surprised if it wasn't possible for a skilled pilot to still lead a Drukhari army to winning a GT, but it sure as hell looks a lot harder than for most of the last twelve months.
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fisheyes
Klaivex
fisheyes


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PostSubject: Re: Nephilim Pack!!   Nephilim Pack!! - Page 2 I_icon_minitimeTue Jun 28 2022, 20:33

IMO, I think we did fall out of A Tier at the end of Nauchmond. Many of the top placing DE lists had 995 points of Harlies, and an 85 point unit of Corsairs (which isnt a "DE" army IMHO). The overall Nauchmond data averaged us to about a 51% win rate overall, which would imply we werent doing so well at the end (we were doing great at the beginning).

But this is my opinion based on the data Ive seen. Im sure there are many ways to view the data, all of which are correct.

Now Im jumping to another faction while I wait for smarter people than I to find what will work. Not happy about it, but it is what it is.
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krayd
Hekatrix
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PostSubject: Re: Nephilim Pack!!   Nephilim Pack!! - Page 2 I_icon_minitimeTue Jun 28 2022, 21:25

fisheyes wrote:
IMO, I think we did fall out of A Tier at the end of Nauchmond. Many of the top placing DE lists had 995 points of Harlies, and an 85 point unit of Corsairs (which isnt a "DE" army IMHO). The overall Nauchmond data averaged us to about a 51% win rate overall, which would imply we werent doing so well at the end (we were doing great at the beginning).

Anything too far above 50% is likely broken and invites nerfs (and GW can often be needlessly heavy-handed in inexplicable ways), so 51% is not a bad place to be at all. Just as long as we stay there.

I'm more annoyed that it seems that pretty much only 1 or 2 types of lists seem to be doing well competitively.

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Burnage
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Burnage


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PostSubject: Re: Nephilim Pack!!   Nephilim Pack!! - Page 2 I_icon_minitimeWed Jun 29 2022, 10:02

fisheyes wrote:
IMO, I think we did fall out of A Tier at the end of Nauchmond. Many of the top placing DE lists had 995 points of Harlies, and an 85 point unit of Corsairs (which isnt a "DE" army IMHO). The overall Nauchmond data averaged us to about a 51% win rate overall, which would imply we werent doing so well at the end (we were doing great at the beginning).

But this is my opinion based on the data Ive seen. Im sure there are many ways to view the data, all of which are correct.

Now Im jumping to another faction while I wait for smarter people than I to find what will work. Not happy about it, but it is what it is.

In the final month of Nachmund, the faction win rates looked like this:

Nephilim Pack!! - Page 2 AYRtI4u

Pure Drukhari (which is what's represented on that list, with about a three game exception) had a win rate of 52% - in a vacuum, that's not impressive, but the median faction rate is hovering somewhere around 40% currently due to the sheer dominance of the S tier factions. Win rate, of course, isn't everything either; Asuryani is doing worse on that list than in reality due to a) high skill cap, and b) non-Hail or Ulthwe lists bringing the average down. But overall I think it shows that relative to other factions Drukhari were still in a fine spot.

Art of War went through the tier list post-Nephilim the other day and pegged us as the top of B, which feels about right now.

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sekac
Wych
sekac


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PostSubject: Re: Nephilim Pack!!   Nephilim Pack!! - Page 2 I_icon_minitimeWed Jun 29 2022, 13:30

Burnage wrote:
sekac wrote:
It's simultaneously predictable and something they routinely fail to predict. I was very vocal about how unnecessary the last round of nerfs we received were because newer books were already out-damaging our glass cannon army (making as just a glass army), and the Nachmund book was going bring some soft nerfs too. And I was laughed at by several forum members for suggesting Drukhari were going to fall out of the A Tier entirely. And yet that is, quite predictably what happened. 

Can I retrospectively laugh at you again for this opinion? Drukhari did not fall out of A tier pre-Nephilim by any reasonable metric.

Sure, I'll still think it's pointless to say "data makes me right" without presenting any, and then acting smug about it. But you do you. If by A tier you mean "extremely slim hope of making it into the top 8 of major tournaments and certainly no chance at all to win", then yes we were A tier. I don't think that's A tier.


In the world of pre-nerfed harlequns, Tau, Custodes, and GK, Drukhari win rates were well under 50%. If you reeeaaallly stretch the definition of A tier, then sure. Because there were a lot of armies far less competitive than ours, we were A tier by default, not because our win rates suggested as much.


I'd make the argument there was no A-tier for a couple months of Nachmund. If you wanted to perform well at a tournament, you had a choice of 3 armies. Otherwise, show up to have fun, challenge yourself, etc. But don't go in looking to place well.
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fisheyes
Klaivex
fisheyes


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PostSubject: Re: Nephilim Pack!!   Nephilim Pack!! - Page 2 I_icon_minitimeWed Jun 29 2022, 21:28

Ultimately we can argue over these subjective "Tiers", but I doubt any of us will convince others. I know I am firmly entrenched in my position Razz

Hopefully tourneys this weekend will mostly be using the new mission pack, so we will see some data (not that the data/win rates are the end-all proof).

Personally, as someone who plays 3-5 times a week in Competitive environments, I think that DE are in a pretty rough place.

The AoW Tier list recently released was pretty interesting to watch. I largely agreed with it, but would have moved Chaos Knights and Death Guard just above Dark Eldar (the -1 damage in CC abilities really neuter our combat). Of course those guys know way more than me, Ive only been written about in Goonhammer once, they get write ups all the time.

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