- @fisheyes wrote:
But if your going to nerd out, you may as well DO IT RIGHT!
Oh yes, this is what triggered me into going into Nerd Mode.
As I'm prepping for teaching Math in 7th and 8th grade I thought I might refresh some of my math. Even though it isn't really covered in these grades, it's a good excuse to take a good look at the math.
So first thing of is looking at any probability issue with only averages, which isn't telling the story of variance. And variance is linked to expected results and that is what we need to direct the right amount of firepower on the right targets.
So first of I'll post the graph I made on the Twinlinked Heatlance on a BS 4+ platform.
In this graph the bottom axis is Damage dealt and how likely this is to happen if we shoot the Twinlinked Heatlance at 4+ chance to hit.
First thing what we perceive is that the probability of dealing 0 damage is off the chart.
Those values are:
Which is a glaring problem: at least half of the time the shooting is ineffective. So our risk is this, the risk we wasted shooting on a target.
Of course if you could boost the to hit and/or to wound roll, these odds would improve. For a Talos, I don't know many, but I'm no expert in the current from of 40k.
What we can count on as the reward for our shooting is at least 1 damage at the following rates:
So what this tell me is the the Heatlance is not as reliable to pick off wounds on high T targets. It does have a decent chance to inflict some more wounds, so you want to use it first, to see how much more shooting needs to go in the target to take it a bracket down for example.
If we take a look at what the chance is to do at least 4 damage the values become:
T5: 31,94% at 9": 41,58%
T6: 23,96% at 9": 31,18%
T7+: 15,97% at 9": 20,79%
What we can take away from this that there is a decent chance to get up to 4 damage or higher. Getting in close range does improve the odds but not more than about 9,5% vs T5 about 8% vs T6 and only a small 5% vs T7 or tougher.
So clearly as we would expect the weapon suffers from S6 to deliver the damage but the d6 and the melta effect help to give it high roll potential.
EDIT: I didn't include the different possible saves to mitigate damage but you can clearly see that these would linearly decrease the damage taken by the target. So any target with a decent invul save of a FnP would be less likely than 50% to get hurt from a single Talos shooting at it.
In my current perspective you would at least need to take 3 Taloï to get a good chance at reliably damaging a high T and defensive target.