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 The Necrontyr Threat

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SirTainly
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PostSubject: Re: The Necrontyr Threat   The Necrontyr Threat - Page 2 I_icon_minitimeMon Oct 24 2011, 22:20

Bad news is that turn 1 is always night fighting if the stormloard is there, and every subsequent turn too, on the roll of a 6.
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Cailos
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PostSubject: Re: The Necrontyr Threat   The Necrontyr Threat - Page 2 I_icon_minitimeMon Oct 24 2011, 22:22

I am just glad we have Flickerfield to make it less of a loss if this happens.
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SirTainly
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PostSubject: Re: The Necrontyr Threat   The Necrontyr Threat - Page 2 I_icon_minitimeMon Oct 24 2011, 22:23

Oops realised I didn't take account of the D6 hits

these numbers are for just one hit...

will revise
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Cailos
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PostSubject: Re: The Necrontyr Threat   The Necrontyr Threat - Page 2 I_icon_minitimeMon Oct 24 2011, 22:24

@SirTainly wrote:
Oops realised I didn't take account of the D6 hits

these numbers are for just one hit...

will revise
Wow the odds are against us.
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SirTainly
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PostSubject: Re: The Necrontyr Threat   The Necrontyr Threat - Page 2 I_icon_minitimeMon Oct 24 2011, 22:43

I think the revised odds look like this for 1-6 hits:

0.167 x ((0.334) + (0.028)) = 0.06
0.167 x (2 x 0.362) = 0.12
0.167 x (3 x 0.362) = 0.18
0.167 x (4 x 0.362) = 0.24
0.167 x (5 x 0.362) = 0.30
0.167 x (6 x 0.362) = 0.36
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Thor665
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PostSubject: Re: The Necrontyr Threat   The Necrontyr Threat - Page 2 I_icon_minitimeTue Oct 25 2011, 02:30

Something is messed up with that math - they can't have a better chance of destroying us than the chance of having the effect trigger. I'm not sure I'm smart enough right now to say where in the math that misstep is happening - but it makes sense conceptually.

16.7% chance the effect will trigger is obviously true - and your independent number crunching for wrecked results appears true - but you're also doing each die result as a separate percentage which is messed up somewhere, especially with the multiplication via the core chance of the attack even happening.

Also, just a note, is the lightning piercing armor? It doesn't appear to - which means, effectively, we're closed top vehicles for this hit since its AP - will negate our Open Topped effect, which will swing the numbers back in our favor (slightly).

But - yeah - if there's an 84% chance the effect misses - it cannot possibly have a 36% chance to destroy our vehicles, yeah? Something is off in that math, as said, I might try to spot it later when I'm awake. The core of the issue being that it can miss 84% of the time, but then might generate multiple 'wounds' is throwing off the numbers. It would be the same as if we tracked all the hits that did less effect, it would make it look like the roll of 6 hits was the least effective because it had a higher percentage of fail.

This makes sense to anyone else?

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Todo13
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PostSubject: Re: The Necrontyr Threat   The Necrontyr Threat - Page 2 I_icon_minitimeTue Oct 25 2011, 02:33

I feel like necrons becoming faster, getting transports and more weapon variety can only be a bad thing for the DE, the codex is written by Matt Ward so of course it's going to be OP…

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SirTainly
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PostSubject: Re: The Necrontyr Threat   The Necrontyr Threat - Page 2 I_icon_minitimeTue Oct 25 2011, 03:09

It's AP5 so we're OT.
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SirTainly
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PostSubject: Re: The Necrontyr Threat   The Necrontyr Threat - Page 2 I_icon_minitimeTue Oct 25 2011, 03:14

also the re the stats I realise that the chance of getting a killed result is higher. I hadn't factored in that with 3 hits or more doing weapon destroyed and immobilised you'd also be wrecked as a raider.
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PostSubject: Re: The Necrontyr Threat   The Necrontyr Threat - Page 2 I_icon_minitimeTue Oct 25 2011, 18:33

I'd consider the chanse of it wrecking a vehicle being the same as the chanse of it triggering. Because if you get any more than 2 hits, you will be almost quaranteed to get atleats one penetrating hit in. Sure, it could just end up with a weapon destroyed, but anythign else will eighter destroy it or render the vehicle useless (and liekly to be destroyed by something else).

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PostSubject: Re: The Necrontyr Threat   The Necrontyr Threat - Page 2 I_icon_minitimeTue Oct 25 2011, 19:23

I guess the average for it activating is 3-4 hits, and each hit is almost guaranteed penetrate, which is 66% chance of dying or being imobilised.

the ability is pretty ridiculous, if he gets lucky it is almost a

"well done, you win. Want to re-deploy and start again?"
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Cailos
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PostSubject: Re: The Necrontyr Threat   The Necrontyr Threat - Page 2 I_icon_minitimeTue Oct 25 2011, 19:57

I am going to take a big guess and what we know of the ability isn't the finished one because it really is a huge "I WIN" button if it goes off and I don't think GW wants someone being able to just up and win first turn or at least change the game so much that the other player is almost crippled.
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Sorrowshard
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PostSubject: Re: The Necrontyr Threat   The Necrontyr Threat - Page 2 I_icon_minitimeTue Oct 25 2011, 20:05

Uh.. Grey knights ? Ill take this over psycannon/psyflemen spam

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Cailos
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PostSubject: Re: The Necrontyr Threat   The Necrontyr Threat - Page 2 I_icon_minitimeTue Oct 25 2011, 20:08

@Sorrowshard wrote:
Uh.. Grey knights ? Ill take this over psycannon/psyflemen spam
You can fight psycannon and psyflemen spam. The Stormlords ability cause night fighting so its harder to attack them first turn. (They have the same problem aswell) But can basicly nuke us first turn.
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Thor665
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PostSubject: Re: The Necrontyr Threat   The Necrontyr Threat - Page 2 I_icon_minitimeTue Oct 25 2011, 20:15

Actually I agree with Sorrowshard - Psyriflemen are more of an 'I win' button than this ability in my opinion. Maybe if the rest of their army is really obnoxious but...meh.

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Tiri Rana
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PostSubject: Re: The Necrontyr Threat   The Necrontyr Threat - Page 2 I_icon_minitimeTue Oct 25 2011, 20:26

The Problem is that percent chances are capped at 100%, so 6 * 0.362 should be 1 and not over 2, because obviously a vehicle can't be destroyed more than once.

It should look like:

Chance for a roll of 6:
0.167

Then the pen roll would be:
0.667 chance of a pen
0.167 chance of a glance

Pen leading to a wreck or explode is:
0.5 flat plus a chance of 0.334 per every three hits.
0.5 + 0.334 / 3 = 0.61134

Glance leading to wrecked is
0.167 flat plus a chance of 0.334 per every three hits.
0.167 + 0.334 / 3 = 0.27834

I factored that in only for three hits and above, for obvious reasons.

0.167 * (0.334 + 0.028) = 0.167 * 0.362 = 0.06 {0.04}
0.167 * 2 * 0.362 = 0.167 * 0,724 = 0.12 {0.08}
0.167 * 3 * (0,667 * 0.61134 + 0.167 * 0.27834) = 0.167 * 1 [1,362] = 0.167 {0.151}
0.167 * 4 * 0.454 = 0.167 * 1 [1.86] = 0.167 {0.167}
0.167 * 5 * 0.454 = 0.167 * 1 [2.27] = 0.167 {0.167}
0.167 * 6 * 0.454 = 0.167 * 1 [2.724] = 0.167 {0.167}

So if a lightning strikes there is a 2/3rd chance that your vehicle goes definitely boom.

The average chance that a vehicle is destroyed is around 14%.

Edit:
Added results with flickerfield in {} brackets. As we can see, they don't help much.
We are still surely doomed in 50% and even for three attacks it just dropps from over 100% to 90%, so I wouldn#t bet on it.
The overall average drops from 14% to 13%, that's still very bad for us.

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Last edited by Tiri Rana on Tue Oct 25 2011, 22:39; edited 4 times in total
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Thor665
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PostSubject: Re: The Necrontyr Threat   The Necrontyr Threat - Page 2 I_icon_minitimeTue Oct 25 2011, 21:23

Awesome, thanks - I knew something was messing that up but wasn't smart enough to puzzle it out myself.

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notts
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PostSubject: Re: The Necrontyr Threat   The Necrontyr Threat - Page 2 I_icon_minitimeTue Oct 25 2011, 22:12

@Sorrowshard wrote:
Uh.. Grey knights ? Ill take this over psycannon/psyflemen spam

But you can use cover, shoot them, engage in CC,...

This guy, with a bit of luck, will kill 4 transports in turn 1 and just end the game
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PostSubject: Re: The Necrontyr Threat   The Necrontyr Threat - Page 2 I_icon_minitimeTue Oct 25 2011, 22:54

@notts - what sort of luck is that? Psyriflemen will probably kill 5-6 in one turn unless there's a good amount of LoS blocking terrain. Certainly them killing 4 isn't that hard, not even counting their other stuff. Also, the Necron guy will probably kill around 1/6 of your transports/vehicles - and if 1/6 of your mech is 4 things...well, no worries.

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SirTainly
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PostSubject: Re: The Necrontyr Threat   The Necrontyr Threat - Page 2 I_icon_minitimeTue Oct 25 2011, 23:44

Thanks for sorting out the sums, Tiri! Smile


Too bad the results are still depressing LOL
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PostSubject: Re: The Necrontyr Threat   The Necrontyr Threat - Page 2 I_icon_minitimeWed Oct 26 2011, 01:17

Compared to other things in a similar price range I'm not sure it's so bad. I consider Long Fangs functionally an assured 2 dead skimmers for, what, 115 points? So Space Wolves pay around 345 points to get 6 dead skimmers in their turn, we'll accept it isn't always instant death, but let's just toy with that and say 4, I don't think anyone will disagree with me that 3 squads of Long Fangs ought to be able to swing that.

An average Raider spam list will bring 12 vehicles to the board at around 1750-2000.
16% for effect trigger (we'll just presume auto-wreck) is 1.92 - so let's call it 2 Dead vehicles a turn.

So - Space Wolves pay 345 for 4 dead not counting what the rest of their army does.
Necrons pay 200+ for 2 dead and somewhat nerf the entire rest of their army as far as shooting us.

Sadly it looks in line with other obnoxious armies that we already deal with, and, I suspect, it's actually going to be less potent than dealing with Psyriflemen or serious Razorspam.

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SirTainly
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PostSubject: Re: The Necrontyr Threat   The Necrontyr Threat - Page 2 I_icon_minitimeWed Oct 26 2011, 02:16

Agreed, it's not quite autowin, and I know this changes the numbers a bit - AV11, but if the 2 hits are on your Ravagers (remembering those playing under the comp rules we have can only have 2) then that's really going to be a game changer. Plus of course Necrons do have some long range firepower now, and templates too, so even with nightfighting they could have a pretty powerful first turn if they roll well for visibility.

Does this mean we need to reserve I wonder?
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PostSubject: Re: The Necrontyr Threat   The Necrontyr Threat - Page 2 I_icon_minitimeWed Oct 26 2011, 03:03

Depends what the rest of their army is really doing - I currently hold that their army's potential 'eat face' effect it is less bothersome than Wolf Razorspam's on Turn 1 - so I am leaning 'no' currently.

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PostSubject: Re: The Necrontyr Threat   The Necrontyr Threat - Page 2 I_icon_minitimeWed Oct 26 2011, 17:10

I suspect that keeping the necrons down will be more of a challenge than dealing with an IC.

Especially in DOW, usually can get some amount of firepower to drop a small unit f we go first, if not, then it doesn't matter.

I used to play necrons rather succesfully and attrition was always the strong point of the army. I ran the phalanx type of army with lots of warriors and immortals support by a res orb lord.

This has all changed now with new rules, but I think still the attrition fight is where we DE are going to have to look to to win. Espcially moreso since now I am told PW and Instant death don't matter any more for the new We'll be back.

it will be very curious to see where the real threats lie once the codex is out.

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PostSubject: Re: The Necrontyr Threat   The Necrontyr Threat - Page 2 I_icon_minitimeThu Oct 27 2011, 03:36

I think the real threat is that it has been written by that clown Matt Ward.
I heard that this is his last 40K dex before he goes to work on the Hobbit, so no doubt he'll be out to prove just how outrageous he can be.
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