There has been discussion in other threads about reserves manipulation. Taking an Autarch for the +/- 1, taking the standard FOC to get the fortification for a comms relay, etc.. So I thought I would go through the numbers of the various choices we have for reserves manipulation. We have 4 choices: nothing, comms relay, autarch, and comms relay with autarch. Also, we have 2 different reasons for reserve manipulation: we want a unit to come in, and we don't want a unit to come in.
1) Nothing: We have a 2/3 chance of a unit coming in and 1/3 chance of it not coming in. Nothing more to see here.
2) Comms relay: 2/3 chance of a unit coming in and a 2/3 chance on the re-roll equals 8/9 chance of the unit coming in. 1/3 chance to not come in with a 1/3 chance on the re-roll of a successful roll equals a 5/9 chance to keep a unit off if we don't want it.
3) Autarch: 5/6 chance to get the unit in and 1/2 chance if we don't want the unit.
4) Comms + Autarch: 5/6 chance plus a 5/6 chance on the re-roll equals 35/36 chance to get a unit in and 1/2 plus 1/2 on the re-roll equals 3/4 chance if you don't want the unit
I put everything together in a table showing the chance out of 36 for each occurrence for comparison.
Type In Not In
Nothing 24/36 12/36
Comms 32/36 20/36
Autarch 30/36 18/36
Comms + Autarch 35/36 27/36
The comms relay is slightly better than the Autarch (2/36) in both instances while comms + Autarch is almost automatic for bringing units in and a significant upgrade over the individual options for leaving units out. I will leave thoughts and opinions for a separate post, just wanted to get the data out here for everyone.