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 Dy!eath by a thousand dice. Enjoy!

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kicu
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PostSubject: Dy!eath by a thousand dice. Enjoy!   Mon Apr 09 2018, 18:40

#mathhammer
Hey Wink I decided to run my small project on blogspot. Feel free to comment. First post is focusing on blaster vs a haywire blaster.
Enjoy!
http://deadlydice.blogspot.com/
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colinsherlow
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PostSubject: Re: Dy!eath by a thousand dice. Enjoy!   Mon Apr 09 2018, 20:01

I will check it out

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Soulless Samurai
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PostSubject: Re: Dy!eath by a thousand dice. Enjoy!   Mon Apr 09 2018, 20:14

Even after reading your descriptions, I still have no clue what I'm looking at.

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kicu
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PostSubject: Re: Dy!eath by a thousand dice. Enjoy!   Mon Apr 09 2018, 20:57

@Soulless Samurai wrote:
Even after reading your descriptions, I still have no clue what I'm looking at.

Thx for feedback - these are my first steps - I will try to do better next time
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Soulless Samurai
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PostSubject: Re: Dy!eath by a thousand dice. Enjoy!   Mon Apr 09 2018, 21:01

@kicu wrote:
@Soulless Samurai wrote:
Even after reading your descriptions, I still have no clue what I'm looking at.

Thx for feedback - these are my first steps - I will try to do better next time

Well it's possible that I'm just a bit thick, so maybe see what others have to say. Wink

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wormfromhell
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PostSubject: Re: Dy!eath by a thousand dice. Enjoy!   Mon Apr 09 2018, 21:25

Blog wrote:

the X-axis shows damage dealt (Well, theoretically 1 hwb can do even 12 dmg, but probability of it doing 7+ is ~0,5% against a Raider)
the Y-axis shows probability of doing that much dmg

so the Y axis is the probability of that amount of damage in decimal, e.g there is a 0.2 or 1/5 chance of dealing 1 wound to a raider. keep in mind these are single guns, so if there is multiple the drop-off would be steeper.

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kicu
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PostSubject: Re: Dy!eath by a thousand dice. Enjoy!   Tue Apr 10 2018, 17:55

New post about Dark Lance and the Cannon. Enjoy it here!
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LordSplata
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PostSubject: Re: Dy!eath by a thousand dice. Enjoy!   Wed Apr 11 2018, 14:11

Just read the articles. Really excited your geting into this and look forward to reading more.
Big into mathhammering myself, and I like the analysis.

I did find it a bit difficult to decipher all the data, even the graphs in the second post, where I could tel you were trying to do it make it easier. And I got where you were going in the end, that it is how much damage a single shot can do, but knowing which gun did more damage overall was difficult to tell.

The other thing I found when making the graphing functions of the mathhammer calculator was a line graph tended to "Lie" because it had a whole heap of results (like 0.5 wounds) that don't exist. As a result, I found a bar graph to be a more effective way of conveying information.
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kicu
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PostSubject: Re: Dy!eath by a thousand dice. Enjoy!   Wed Apr 11 2018, 20:59

@LordSplata wrote:
Just read the articles.  Really excited your geting into this and look forward to reading more.
Big into mathhammering myself, and I like the analysis.

I did find it a bit difficult to decipher all the data,  even the graphs in the second post, where I could tel you were trying to do it make it easier.  And I got where you were going in the end, that it is how much damage a single shot can do, but knowing which gun did more damage overall was difficult to tell.

The other thing I found when making the graphing functions of the mathhammer calculator was a line graph tended to "Lie" because it had a whole heap of results (like 0.5 wounds) that don't exist.  As a result, I found a bar graph to be a more effective way of conveying information.

Thx for your input Very Happy I try to improve with every post. GLad to hear that it is at least a bit interesting Very Happy

Meanwhile I posted a new article few hours ago. Let's check whether new Shredder and Splinter racks are an improvement when it comes to killing infantry Very Happy

Enjoy!
https://deadlydice.blogspot.com/2018/04/how-to-kill-infantry-effectively.html
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Shizi
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PostSubject: Re: Dy!eath by a thousand dice. Enjoy!   Wed Apr 11 2018, 21:56

Good job, keep on Very Happy
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wormfromhell
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PostSubject: Re: Dy!eath by a thousand dice. Enjoy!   Wed Apr 11 2018, 22:54

Shredders really are viable now! a unit of shredder scourge can reliably kill 10 GEQ, if you include morale!

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withershadow
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PostSubject: Re: Dy!eath by a thousand dice. Enjoy!   Thu Apr 12 2018, 06:50

@wormfromhell wrote:
Shredders really are viable now! a unit of shredder scourge can reliably kill 10 GEQ, if you include morale!
Quit making me buy more Scourges.
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wormfromhell
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PostSubject: Re: Dy!eath by a thousand dice. Enjoy!   Thu Apr 12 2018, 07:03

@withershadow wrote:
@wormfromhell wrote:
Shredders really are viable now! a unit of shredder scourge can reliably kill 10 GEQ, if you include morale!
Quit making me buy more Scourges.

I bought an eBay lot with 30 a while back and tons of other stuff, it is tempting to run a scourge list and convert a +2" move succubus into a scourge HQ, that could be a cool theme. I might try that actually...

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Ragnos
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PostSubject: Re: Dy!eath by a thousand dice. Enjoy!   Thu Apr 12 2018, 07:44

Very nice summary and comparison.

Would have saved me some time if I looked at this earlier. I arrived at the conclusion that I take Dissies on Raiders/Ravagers and DL/Blasters on Warriors. DL might be better against T6 and T7, but the Dissie is just more versatile. Also the variance of dmg dealt by a dissie is lower because of the 3 shots.

Is there an analysis about the variance of dmg dealt somewhere? Most of the time just the expectation is calculated. I really would like to compare the probability density functions.
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kicu
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PostSubject: Re: Dy!eath by a thousand dice. Enjoy!   Fri Apr 13 2018, 14:22

@Ragnos wrote:

Is there an analysis about the variance of dmg dealt somewhere? Most of the time just the expectation is calculated. I really would like to compare the probability density functions.

Hey. I assume you are still reffering to the DL vs DC post? I had a quasi-density function in my Scourge post but I got some feedback (not only here) that it is too mathematical for an average reader. Creating a graph for damage dealt as a function of T and Sv of a target would result in a  3D graph and these are not that easy to read or create. I plan on coming back to AT weaponry some time soon while comparing all of our viable options.
Thx a lot for your comment.



BTW a new articlehas arrived Very Happy
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wormfromhell
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PostSubject: Re: Dy!eath by a thousand dice. Enjoy!   Sat Apr 14 2018, 02:24

@kicu wrote:
@Ragnos wrote:

Is there an analysis about the variance of dmg dealt somewhere? Most of the time just the expectation is calculated. I really would like to compare the probability density functions.

Hey. I assume you are still reffering to the DL vs DC post? I had a quasi-density function in my Scourge post but I got some feedback (not only here) that it is too mathematical for an average reader. Creating a graph for damage dealt as a function of T and Sv of a target would result in a  3D graph and these are not that easy to read or create. I plan on coming back to AT weaponry some time soon while comparing all of our viable options.
Thx a lot for your comment.



BTW a new articlehas arrived Very Happy

generally more shots and constant damage = more reliable, less shots and variable damage = more fluctuant. so haywire is more reliable than DL, so is DC, although with DL you can get real good rolls (or really bad).

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withershadow
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PostSubject: Re: Dy!eath by a thousand dice. Enjoy!   Sat Apr 14 2018, 02:51

Generally the swingy stuff is better against really tough stuff like Mortarion. If you dice past their defenses, you want to do as much damage as possible. Needs a bit of luck but that’s how the game is played.
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kicu
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PostSubject: Re: Dy!eath by a thousand dice. Enjoy!   Sun Apr 15 2018, 09:58

Let's talk about wyches. Obsessions, drugs and rock'n'roll!

Check it out!
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kicu
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PostSubject: Re: Dy!eath by a thousand dice. Enjoy!   Wed Apr 18 2018, 15:26

New post with some info on Incubi, Grotesques and Lhamaean!

Check it out!
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Quauchtemoc
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PostSubject: Re: Dy!eath by a thousand dice. Enjoy!   Wed Apr 18 2018, 18:34

I still dont understand this "same point thing" . You say the point are equal and then talk about 3 grotesque vs 5 incubi ?
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kicu
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PostSubject: Re: Dy!eath by a thousand dice. Enjoy!   Wed Apr 18 2018, 22:47

Hey Very Happy
Lets say that a unit that costs 50pts does 2dmg on average and a unit that costs 100 pts deal 3dmg.
Then I divide this damage by the cost of the unit and then multiply it by 100. What I get is Average damage dealt for every 100pts I pay for the unit. In the example 1st unit deals 4dmg/100pts and the 2nd deals 3dmg/100pts -> the 1st unit is more effective for its cost
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Quauchtemoc
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PostSubject: Re: Dy!eath by a thousand dice. Enjoy!   Wed Apr 18 2018, 22:48

Ah ok i see, i think you should stop talking about X man unit then cause it make it really confusing.

A remark about the damage output : we need to take into account that we are limited to 3 lhamean at 2000 point
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kicu
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PostSubject: Re: Dy!eath by a thousand dice. Enjoy!   Thu Apr 19 2018, 17:43

@Quauchtemoc wrote:
Ah ok i see, i think you should stop talking about X man unit then cause it make it really confusing.

A remark about the damage output : we need to take into account that we are limited to 3 lhamean at 2000 point

Yes but only in matched play. Lhamaean party bus is so hilarious that I had to mention this possibility
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LordSplata
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PostSubject: Re: Dy!eath by a thousand dice. Enjoy!   Thu Apr 19 2018, 23:40

Nice post. It really spells out why razor flails are good in the codex

A couple of corrections on the wyches post, a succubus can't have a shard net, only the impaler. And a roll off only happens once. The rule states if a unit fallbacks back from any models with this rule then they must roll off. So no 97% shenanigans


Last edited by LordSplata on Fri Apr 20 2018, 00:09; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : Added strike through)
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Soulless Samurai
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PostSubject: Re: Dy!eath by a thousand dice. Enjoy!   Thu Apr 19 2018, 23:42

@LordSplata wrote:
A couple of corrections on the wyches post, a succubus can't have a shard net, only the impaler.

That's incorrect. A Succubus can replace both of her weapons with a Shardnet and Impailer, or her Agoniser with just the Impailer.

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