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 Blaster, Heat Lance, Haywire

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Imateria
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PostSubject: Re: Blaster, Heat Lance, Haywire   Sat Apr 07 2018, 12:43

@amishprn86 wrote:
@Calyptra wrote:
Everybody keeps saying they think haywire blasters are worth it, and I still don't see it.  Yes, the guns are cheap, but the models carrying them aren't.

A unit of haywire Scourges will probably get 8 shots = 5 hits = 2 or 3 mortal wounds. So it will take them 4 or 5 turns to kill a Rhino, or I'm bringing 4 or 5 units of them.

A unit of blaster Scourges will probably cause 7 wounds to a Rhino, if I'm mathing it correctly, which is more than twice as effective.

Blaster Scourges are also vastly more likely to have a lucky roll and kill a Rhino or Predator or equivalent outright - they can do it by rolling nothing but 3s.

Am I mathing wrong or missing something?

I feel like wounds inflicted per points spent is important, but so is wounds inflicted per game turn. Your Scourges may not get a second turn to shoot, especially if their target survived the first volley.

I actually want to be wrong about this because I think haywire blasters are more interesting in an army that's already full of blaster blasters.

Scourges are cheaper, 5 Scourges with 4 HWB is 92pts

I can't for the life of me understand how anyone can consider a model with a 4+/6++, 14"M and Deep Strike for 12pts as being expensive.
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Calyptra
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PostSubject: Re: Blaster, Heat Lance, Haywire   Sat Apr 07 2018, 16:18

@Imateria wrote:
@amishprn86 wrote:
@Calyptra wrote:
Everybody keeps saying they think haywire blasters are worth it, and I still don't see it.  Yes, the guns are cheap, but the models carrying them aren't.

A unit of haywire Scourges will probably get 8 shots = 5 hits = 2 or 3 mortal wounds. So it will take them 4 or 5 turns to kill a Rhino, or I'm bringing 4 or 5 units of them.

A unit of blaster Scourges will probably cause 7 wounds to a Rhino, if I'm mathing it correctly, which is more than twice as effective.

Blaster Scourges are also vastly more likely to have a lucky roll and kill a Rhino or Predator or equivalent outright - they can do it by rolling nothing but 3s.

Am I mathing wrong or missing something?

I feel like wounds inflicted per points spent is important, but so is wounds inflicted per game turn. Your Scourges may not get a second turn to shoot, especially if their target survived the first volley.

I actually want to be wrong about this because I think haywire blasters are more interesting in an army that's already full of blaster blasters.

Scourges are cheaper, 5 Scourges with 4 HWB is 92pts

I can't for the life of me understand how anyone can consider a model with a 4+/6++, 14"M and Deep Strike for 12pts as being expensive.

I meant that they were an investment, not that they were a lot of points for what they do. And they've apparently gone down in points as well.

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withershadow
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PostSubject: Re: Blaster, Heat Lance, Haywire   Sat Apr 07 2018, 16:27

They average 4 mortal wounds and can generate a lot more. The difference per turn is rough 1 wound, unless they have an invulnerable save or quantum shielding
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FuelDrop
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PostSubject: Re: Blaster, Heat Lance, Haywire   Sat Apr 07 2018, 23:22

HWB are our hard counter for superheavies.

One day someone is going to post getting that one-in-a-million shot and having a squad of Scourges deal 48 wounds in a single shooting phase.
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Ikol
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PostSubject: Re: Blaster, Heat Lance, Haywire   Sun Apr 08 2018, 06:29

48...

D3 shots, so 1/3 chance of 3 shots. BS3+, so 2/3 chance of each shot hitting. 1/6 chance of D3 mortal wounds, 2/3 chance of 3 mortal wounds...
Per gun.

Per shot, you have a 1/27 chance of 3 mortal wounds.

Per gun you have a 1/3 chance of 3 shots.

Giving a 1/81 chance of getting 9 mortal wounds out of a single Scourge.

Raise that to the power of 4 for 4 Scourges, and you have a 0.0000023% chance of a unit of Scourges with HWB slamming out 36 mortal wounds into an enemy. Naturally, having rolled 6’s to wound for the D3 to trigger, you have a further 12 regular wounds at AP-1.

That’s 23/1000000000.

Sorry, FuelDrop, you’re looking at closer to a twenty three in a billion chance of getting that shot off.

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PostSubject: Re: Blaster, Heat Lance, Haywire   Sun Apr 08 2018, 06:35

@Ikol wrote:
48...

D3 shots, so 1/3 chance of 3 shots.  BS3+, so 2/3 chance of each shot hitting.  1/6 chance of D3 mortal wounds, 2/3 chance of 3 mortal wounds...
Per gun.

Per shot, you have a 1/27 chance of 3 mortal wounds.

Per gun you have a 1/3 chance of 3 shots.

Giving a 1/81 chance of getting 9 mortal wounds out of a single Scourge.

Raise that to the power of 4 for 4 Scourges, and you have a 0.0000023% chance of a unit of Scourges with HWB slamming out 36 mortal wounds into an enemy.  Naturally, having rolled 6’s to wound for the D3 to trigger, you have a further 12 regular wounds at AP-1.

That’s 23/1000000000.

Sorry, FuelDrop, you’re looking at closer to a twenty three in a billion chance of getting that shot off.

Okay. So if we assume 100 games per day worldwide with DE, Each with 3 squads of Haywire Scourges. All these games last 5 turns, and the scourges fire every turn.

That is 1,500 shooting phases per day. meaning that in a mere 28,985 days or 79 and a half years, we should be able to pull this off!

Get on it people!
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PostSubject: Re: Blaster, Heat Lance, Haywire   Sun Apr 08 2018, 06:40

During 2nd edition, we played a summer-long campaign that culminated in a tournament.

My HQ at that point was a Level 4 Sorcerer Lord of Tzeench on Disk.  He was over 400 points, had a 2++ invulnerable at range, was a monster in melee, had spells that destroyed enemies and replaced them with horrors, AND a vortex grenade just in case for those nasty Inquisitors and whatnot.

During the final tournament, for three games in a row, when attempting to utilize the vortex, he rolled a 1 to hit (needing 2+), and then hit+misfire on the scatter dice (equivalent of snake eyes). This of course resulted in him dropping the vortex grenade at his feet, dying instantly. THREE GAMES IN A ROW. Ridiculous. Over 20 years later, and I still remember it like it was yesterday and the shop owner still gives me crap about it. It happens.
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shadowseercB
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PostSubject: Re: Blaster, Heat Lance, Haywire   Sun Apr 08 2018, 09:02

@FuelDrop wrote:
So, our three AV special weapons. Which one is best in which circumstances?

For my money I'd suggest that Heat Lances are the least good of the three, being somewhat terrible at wounding vehicles. Given this, I would suggest that Heat Lances are best employed for hunting characters and superheavy infantry. Centurions are a perfect target for a heat lance, with the weapon wounding on 3's, completely ignoring their save, and having an excellent chance of killing.

For all around, the Blaster has good strength, good AP, good wounds. works against monsters and vehicles, while still viable against characters and their ilk.

For superheavy vehicles Haywire Blasters seem to be the go to. Sadly there is a decent amount of mortal wound defence for vehicles floating around, but with a potential max damage roll of 12 wounds (assuming maximum attacks, all rolling a 6 to wound, all mortal wound D3's being 3's...) per shot and 4 guns crammed in a squad, they have seriously improved over the index.

But what are your thoughts? Am I wrong?

So you are pretty spot on with the heat lances. I would say anything toughness 6 and you know you will be close range.

Blasters are good for everything and i would say far better against super heavies than Haywire.

Haywire blasters are good against vehicles with a lower wound count like 10 or below. My two Talos pain engines tonight killed one Rhino on a good roll. 9 shots total 6 hit 4 wounded and two of them were D3 damage. So that was from rolling HOT. Then a couple of my mandrakes finished it off. Haywires are weaker than blasters but totally worth it imo.

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PostSubject: Re: Blaster, Heat Lance, Haywire   Sun Apr 08 2018, 14:16

@Ikol wrote:
48...

D3 shots, so 1/3 chance of 3 shots.  BS3+, so 2/3 chance of each shot hitting.  1/6 chance of D3 mortal wounds, 2/3 chance of 3 mortal wounds...
Per gun.

Per shot, you have a 1/27 chance of 3 mortal wounds.

Per gun you have a 1/3 chance of 3 shots.

Giving a 1/81 chance of getting 9 mortal wounds out of a single Scourge.

Raise that to the power of 4 for 4 Scourges, and you have a 0.0000023% chance of a unit of Scourges with HWB slamming out 36 mortal wounds into an enemy.  Naturally, having rolled 6’s to wound for the D3 to trigger, you have a further 12 regular wounds at AP-1.

That’s 23/1000000000.

Sorry, FuelDrop, you’re looking at closer to a twenty three in a billion chance of getting that shot off.

What are the odds of 8 vehicles exploding and killing at minimum 3 guys everytime? B.c that happen to me in 1 game.

When rolling low amounts of dice weird things can happen.

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PostSubject: Re: Blaster, Heat Lance, Haywire   Mon Apr 09 2018, 09:59

@shadowseercB wrote:

Blasters are good for everything and i would say far better against super heavies than Haywire.
 Haywires are weaker than blasters but totally worth it imo.

What makes you want to use blasters over haywire versus super heavies?
Against super heavies I would use both against them.
Any superheavy with an invul suffers more damage from haywire than from blasters, (around 3 for blasters and around 4 for haywire)
Any superheavy suffers more damage from haywire if you put equal amount of points of haywire and blasters against the superheavy.
4.67 for blasters without invul => 27 points per wound
4 haywire => 23 points per wound
thus an superheavy (around 24 wounds, t8 save 3+ no ward save)
means 5 squads of blasters => 640 points
6 squads of haywire => 552 points
And haywire has a bigger range.
Is the only reason why you prefer blasters for the few percent chance that you deal half the wounds of a super heavy with 1 squad?
Besides that being a big gamble, it also shows that the chance of not dealing any damage is a lot higher (the chances of not dealing any damage is bigger than dealing around 8 or 9 wounds I think).


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PostSubject: Re: Blaster, Heat Lance, Haywire   Mon Apr 09 2018, 12:39

As you have mentioned not all super heavies have a 4++ and many of them are T7 and T8 while some are T9.  Haywire wounds on a 4+ all the time while Blasters wound on a 3+ against T7 (I am seeing more and more Armigers in lists) and below and 4+ at T8 haywire only has a easier time to wound on is T9.  The chance to wound is very dependent on the target as mentioned earlier whether or not it has an invul.

The question is non specific so of course you will see different results from different units firing the same weapons in different situations.

You made good points and while it may not be far better I still believe it is a better choice to hunt super heavies with them. I hope I didnt leave the impression that Haywires are bad. I did say I would take them because they are good, I just think blasters are better in more situations.

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PostSubject: Re: Blaster, Heat Lance, Haywire   Mon Apr 09 2018, 14:21

Haywire wounds T7 on 5+ AND inflicts MW on 4+.

Let's not forget Haywire can still inflict non-mortal wounds. It's still S4 AP-1.

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PostSubject: Re: Blaster, Heat Lance, Haywire   Mon Apr 09 2018, 23:49

Honestly, I think HWB will be most useful against really big superheavies. Stuff with T10+, titans and their ilk.
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PostSubject: Re: Blaster, Heat Lance, Haywire   Tue Apr 10 2018, 02:58

It's pretty freaking amazing vs Necron and Nurgle tanks.  And decent vs Leman Russes.  All things I worry about more than most T7 armor (which I'll still have a ton of Darklight for anyways.)
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