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 Could someone check my numbers?

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FuelDrop
Hekatrix
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PostSubject: Could someone check my numbers?   Sat Jan 20 2018, 01:23

So was running the numbers for the custodes jetbikes compared to Reavers.

I have to be doing the numbers wrong because from what I can tell, not only does the new bike have more firepower than 6 stock reavers, but it's also more survivable against small arms?

6 Reavers with +1 toughness takes 12 x3 (wounding on 5's) x2 (4+ save) + change (6+++, not sure how to calculate it) or 72-82 S3 or 4 hits to take down.

One Custodes jetbike takes 3 x 6 (wounding on 6's due to toughness 6) x 6 (2+ save) or 108 strength 3 hits to take down.
It looks better when we go to S4 hits, as that means the Custodes only takes 54 hits to take down while we stay in the same numbers as before (assuming drugs).


My take away from this? we really need better Jetbikes. This is embarrassing, even for Reavers.
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Kantalla
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PostSubject: Re: Could someone check my numbers?   Sat Jan 20 2018, 05:53

Your numbers are slightly out with FNP, and you aren't including the to hit roll. However, I don't think that changes your conclusions.

The Reavers against S3 (or S4 with +1 T drugs) need:
Ave shots reqd = 12 / (1 shot × 1/2 hit × 1/3 wound × 1/2 unsaved × 5/6 failed FNP) = 173 (or 86 if assuming hits instead of shots).

Custodes bikes are in a sweet spot for S 3 AP 0 weapons. Somewhat of a cherry picked weapon choice, but still amusing that a medium sized squad could be squishier than a single biker.

Ultimately it all depends on the points cost of their units. If they are the same price as Reavers then it would be right to complain, otherwise we would need to see how they fare on equivalent points to decide if there is a great new injustice to fight.

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FuelDrop
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PostSubject: Re: Could someone check my numbers?   Sat Jan 20 2018, 06:00

@Kantalla wrote:
Your numbers are slightly out with FNP, and you aren't including the to hit roll. However, I don't think that changes your conclusions.

The Reavers against S3 (or S4 with +1 T drugs) need:
Ave shots reqd = 12 / (1 shot × 1/2 hit × 1/3 wound × 1/2 unsaved × 5/6 failed FNP) = 173 (or 86 if assuming hits instead of shots).

Custodes bikes are in a sweet spot for S 3 AP 0 weapons. Somewhat of a cherry picked weapon choice, but still amusing that a medium sized squad could be squishier than a single biker.

Ultimately it all depends on the points cost of their units. If they are the same price as Reavers then it would be right to complain, otherwise we would need to see how they fare on equivalent points to decide if there is a great new injustice to fight.

I didn't include to hit because, well, Wyches, lasguns, melee fire warriors, guardians... all these put out S3 ap- hits and their to hit varies wildly.

I'll be worried if Custodes bikers are less than 100 points, because at that point... yeah. Guessing probably 120 points per model ish.
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Burnage
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PostSubject: Re: Could someone check my numbers?   Sat Jan 20 2018, 14:04

I doubt your numbers are wrong. Reavers are too expensive, we know this already, and they're especially expensive compared to bikers from Codexes.

That's not because Reavers are at the right price and everything else is too cheap.
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amishprn86
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PostSubject: Re: Could someone check my numbers?   Sat Jan 20 2018, 14:34

Im actually getting a Custodes bike army (I had WS and DA bike armies before and sold them) But i'm also going to get some Scout bikes its.

Comparing the Scout bikes to ours is funny also.

Also. I think Custodes Bikes can get either a FnP or a 3++ (the bikes might not be able too, but i know many can, only look over the book from bad pics).

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PostSubject: Re: Could someone check my numbers?   Sun Jan 21 2018, 00:45

@Burnage wrote:
I doubt your numbers are wrong. Reavers are too expensive, we know this already, and they're especially expensive compared to bikers from Codexes.

That's not because Reavers are at the right price and everything else is too cheap.

I was more pushing how much of a joke Reavers are than how OP the Custodes bikes are. I mean, if the Custodes are paying 100 points per bike with hurricane bolter, that feels like a reasonable price range. Maybe 110. They're very good, they hit like a monsterous creature, they have plenty of dakka, and they're mobile and survivable. Reasonable for 110 points plus or minus 10.

The fact that they outclass Reavers even when outnumbered 6:1 really goes to show how bad Reavers are. I say we need assault 6 splinter cannons or something on them as stock, so we can use our speed and bring a halfway decent amount of firepower to the table.
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amishprn86
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PostSubject: Re: Could someone check my numbers?   Sun Jan 21 2018, 01:30

@FuelDrop wrote:
@Burnage wrote:
I doubt your numbers are wrong. Reavers are too expensive, we know this already, and they're especially expensive compared to bikers from Codexes.

That's not because Reavers are at the right price and everything else is too cheap.

I was more pushing how much of a joke Reavers are than how OP the Custodes bikes are. I mean, if the Custodes are paying 100 points per bike with hurricane bolter, that feels like a reasonable price range. Maybe 110. They're very good, they hit like a monsterous creature, they have plenty of dakka, and they're mobile and survivable. Reasonable for 110 points plus or minus 10.

The fact that they outclass Reavers even when outnumbered 6:1 really goes to show how bad Reavers are. I say we need assault 6 splinter cannons or something on them as stock, so we can use our speed and bring a halfway decent amount of firepower to the table.

Yep... and im getting 20 of them LOL whahahahahahaha

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PostSubject: Re: Could someone check my numbers?   Sun Jan 21 2018, 02:00

@amishprn86 wrote:
@FuelDrop wrote:
@Burnage wrote:
I doubt your numbers are wrong. Reavers are too expensive, we know this already, and they're especially expensive compared to bikers from Codexes.

That's not because Reavers are at the right price and everything else is too cheap.

I was more pushing how much of a joke Reavers are than how OP the Custodes bikes are. I mean, if the Custodes are paying 100 points per bike with hurricane bolter, that feels like a reasonable price range. Maybe 110. They're very good, they hit like a monsterous creature, they have plenty of dakka, and they're mobile and survivable. Reasonable for 110 points plus or minus 10.

The fact that they outclass Reavers even when outnumbered 6:1 really goes to show how bad Reavers are. I say we need assault 6 splinter cannons or something on them as stock, so we can use our speed and bring a halfway decent amount of firepower to the table.

Yep... and im getting 20 of them LOL whahahahahahaha

But they don't LOOK as awesome as Reavers.
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amishprn86
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PostSubject: Re: Could someone check my numbers?   Sun Jan 21 2018, 12:19

Yeah, but i already have like 30 Reavers so

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PostSubject: Re: Could someone check my numbers?   Mon Jan 22 2018, 07:54

Jeah and you are using a best case scenario for them.
Now if we take the same thing and look at rocket launchers.
1 custodus, 3+ to wound, 3++? means 3 wounds each means about 4.5 hits needed
6 reavers 3+ to wound 6+ means about 10.8 hits needed (am ignoring the 6+++ here since they deal 3 wounds each which means we need to save 2 of those, so the final value should probably increase by about 0.3)
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LordSplata
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PostSubject: Re: Could someone check my numbers?   Wed Jan 24 2018, 20:48

I don't think they are even 100 points, the captain one a bike with a bucketload of amazing rules is only 150points. Honestly, with the whole army having a 2+/4++ and multi wounds I'm not really sure what we can bring to the tabl against it. Splinter, the regular armour and multi wound will stop that in its tracks and the 4++ BEast modes dark light.
Retreat and fire is the only way I can see us coming out of this ok, and against the 14" move of the bikes you can't do that
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PostSubject: Re: Could someone check my numbers?   Wed Jan 24 2018, 20:52

90pts for the Bolter version and 110 for the missile pod one.

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PostSubject: Re: Could someone check my numbers?   Thu Jan 25 2018, 04:59

So the cost of 3 reavers gets you more firepower than 6, and I would suspect better durability in all cases than 3 reavers, plus better melee. But we ARE 2" faster. Good trade..
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PostSubject: Re: Could someone check my numbers?   Thu Jan 25 2018, 06:25

@LordSplata wrote:
I don't think they are even 100 points, the captain one a bike with a bucketload of amazing rules is only 150points. Honestly, with the whole army having a 2+/4++ and multi wounds I'm not really sure what we can bring to the tabl against it. Splinter, the regular armour and multi wound will stop that in its tracks and the 4++ BEast modes dark light.
Retreat and fire is the only way I can see us coming out of this ok, and against the 14" move of the bikes you can't do that

I actually think we can do alright against them.
Sure they keep their 4++ but we can pour massive amounts of dissies and dark lances against them.
Remember they also only get 2 (bikers) or 3 (infantry) for each ravager we put down. Of course this does mean we again have to rely pretty much on darklight to do anything and darklight spam is already a bit of a problem for us since it just works better against nearly everything.
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PostSubject: Re: Could someone check my numbers?   Thu Jan 25 2018, 07:25

Dissies arent... great vs toughness 6 bikers. So on average a 3 dissie ravager gets 9 shots. 6 hit. 2 wound. 1 unsaved. The biker survives 3 dissies ahd kicks the crap out of the ravager next turn. And we have no options in the DE index to boost that.

So we once again find ourselves relying on Darklight spam. Which loses its primary advantage over other armies equivalents due to army wide 4++. I think mandrake spam is our counter here.
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LordSplata
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PostSubject: Re: Could someone check my numbers?   Thu Jan 25 2018, 08:47

As usual mandrake spam is our most damaging solution, with thenonly issue being we can't be at 36"range and fire at them with impunity.

In cost per wound:
Mandrakes 50points (shooting)
Ravagers dark lances 93points
Ravagers disintegrators 92.5
10 wyches +1 attack 3 hydra 1 agoniser 64.5 (close combat)
As above with +1 Str 61.7
Incubi 54 (close combat)

And reavers w +1 attack are 135 in close combat. Just terrible!

Turn 1 calculations
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Kantalla
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PostSubject: Re: Could someone check my numbers?   Thu Jan 25 2018, 09:12

Time for the left-field answer...

These are the perfect target to hit with Lhamaeans. Ideally buffed by a Huskblade Archon!

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PostSubject: Re: Could someone check my numbers?   Thu Jan 25 2018, 10:23

2+ save ruins Lhamaeans offense, while the return attacks are hitting on 2+, wounding on 2+, and deal multiple wounds. Even with Lethal Dose it's not a viable trade for us.
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PostSubject: Re: Could someone check my numbers?   Thu Jan 25 2018, 10:25

Ideally we want as many electrocorrosive whips as we can get out grubby paws on. AP -2 is the ideal AP vs 2+ 4++, wounding on 4's negates their toughness, and 2 damage kills their infantry with one hit.
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PostSubject: Re: Could someone check my numbers?   Thu Jan 25 2018, 16:51

Except their infantry have 3 wounds a piece. But yes, electro corrosive whips, without doing the numbers, seem like a great weapon for us.
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Kantalla
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PostSubject: Re: Could someone check my numbers?   Thu Jan 25 2018, 19:55

I was serious with the Lhamaeans as mathematically our best option.

A single Lhamaean against T6 2+/4++ does the following:
Shooting: 1 shot × 2/3 hit × 1/2 wound × 1/6 unsaved = 1/18 unsaved wounds
Melee: 2 attacks × 2/3 hit × (5/6 wound × 1/6 unsaved + 1/6 mortal wound) = 11/27 unsaved wounds
Total = 0.46 unsaved wounds

With an Archon those increase to 2/27 shooting and 44/51 melee for 0.62 wounds total

At 18 points each, to put in the same context as LordSplata's cost per wound, that is 39 points per wound or 29 points per wound with the Archon aura.

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PostSubject: Re: Could someone check my numbers?   Fri Jan 26 2018, 07:33

Which is pretty similar to the mandrakes (who come out on 0.48 unsaved wounds if you use both melee and ranged for the same price tag)
Although lhamaeans get more damage from turn 3+, they also deal theri damage mostly in melee which might be harder to get to without free deep strike etc.
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