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RegoCrux
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PostSubject: Re: On poison e splinter weapons.   Wed Oct 04 2017, 22:50

As in a different thread, I think splinter rifles do need changed. The change in how wounding works on organics bumped the boltgun et al up a little in comparison. Whether that's a problem is debatable. The change in how wounding works on vehicles broke them. T8 vehicles is the only case where splinter rifles can match. Those are very rare.

Its a difficult thing to address because if you just try changing the strength or AP of a splinter rifle you can overpower it easily. Instead, I believe splinter rifles need to be changed laterally. Take our craftworld cousins as an example. Shardcarbines are a very Drukhari version of the shuriken catapult. Catapults trade range for their rend and assault spec. Carbines trade range for another shot, but have less damage potential per shot. Seems good to me.

My take:

Just make all splinter rifles into shardcarbines and make cannons assault weapons again. Problem solved.
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Lord Johan
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PostSubject: Re: On poison e splinter weapons.   Thu Oct 05 2017, 04:33

@ Strange Dark One - I would know it has been done to death, I posted several maths threads way back - I think you commented on the first one ("expected wounds for Drukhari index weapons") with some valuable input. Splata's now stickied calc is the best thing currently. But it seems like the mathhammerings are seldom kept in mind. However, interesting thing was the Blaster is slightly more points efficient vs all targets compared to a moving DL. Wouldn't make me ever take it over a DL (the difference is really small and you lose 18" of range), does make taking one on Archon or Kabs feel a little better.

There is an interesting aspect of damage I'm not sure was done to death yet: a DL shot is actually 25% more likely to kill an unwounded Primaris as a blaster shot, despite the average damage (1.833... vs 1.66...) being only 10% higher. The latter making Blaster more efficient for its points with that metric of average damage. But if you do not kill one (roll a 1 on DL or up to 2 on Bl) your next shot has a D value of 1. I'm wondering how this "missed damage" would affect avg dmg vs squads now.

E: for 3 successful blaster wounds vs a primaris squad it's
1/3: no kill, kill, 2/3 of a kill
2/3: kill, then
(1/3: no kill, kill; 2/3 kill, 2/3 of a kill)
For a total of 1/3*(1+2/3)+2/3*(1+(1/3*1+2/3*(1+2/3))) or 2.18 dead Primaris. Substituting 1/6 and 5/6 to represent DL it's 2.55 dead Primaris. To compare moving dark lance you would multiply by 3/4 for 1.91 dead Primaris instead. Blaster remains better for the points for 3 of them.

E2: the limit at infinity should be expected damage, I think, ie 10% more for the DL, so the Blaster remains superior for points vs W2 targets despite this observation, although less so for low numbers (the DL costs 33% more while killing 25% to 10% more, if it is so)
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Dark Elf Dave
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PostSubject: Re: On poison e splinter weapons.   Thu Oct 05 2017, 08:50

I am not fond of people saying it will take X amount of points to take out a 90 point Conscript squad...you are acting as if you have thrown away X points just taking out one squad of Conscripts.

So what if you fired 400 points worth of units into the Conscripts. You still have those models on the table. They get to fire again and again and maybe even again.

Also the discussion about Blasters started with a comparison in points to a Melta-Gun not a Dark Lance. Melta-Guns are awesome and I also would prefer one over a Blaster where the difference is just 2 points.
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PostSubject: Re: On poison e splinter weapons.   Thu Oct 05 2017, 11:44

@Lord Johan
Sorry, I forgot that there was more to the matter that isn't brought up often. I remember doing a lot of math to figure out the same but I can't find me notes on the matter anymore. I'm not exactly sure I can follow your forumla.
I made a quick spreadsheet with a different approach, but I am not sure if that's correct: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12aL-gdu6AUJ9fxVxONhYzDvkHbM1cHSvnHpR38J4svo/edit#gid=0

@Dark Elf Dave
While I agree that comparisons in a vacuum are a bit too simplified, the reasoning is not completely wrong either. You might still have 400 points of units, but your opponent also has 310 free points as well. And while you used up a turn of 400 points, your enemy has a free turn with the 310 leftover points.

I fully agree on the Meltas. I wish our Kabalites were as versatile as Corsair Reavers in 7th edition when it came to wargear.

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PostSubject: Re: On poison e splinter weapons.   Thu Oct 05 2017, 12:29

You are right The Strange Dark One...I see what you are saying, they have basically distracted you with a cheap ass unit while their better units are spared any damage.

But often as the game wears on we find, dont we, that perhaps we don't always try to completely kill off the blob unit, maybe weaken it and even avoid it perhaps.

I wonder if now that the Conscripts have to roll for orders, that Wyches are a good choice against them as not only do they need to roll for falling back against us but they then have to roll for orders like "get back in the fight".

Might be an option for us.
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Lord Johan
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PostSubject: Re: On poison e splinter weapons.   Thu Oct 05 2017, 14:19

I for my part have trouble following that spreadsheet - what is the result line?

But basically where I started with the math above is that you have already successfully wounded. You can ignore anything before that because it is equal - except if the DL is moving then it only hits 3/4 of the time a stationary one would, so to equalize you multiply wounds dealt by 3/4.

Say you have dealt a wound: A DL will kill the Primaris with probability 5/6. A Blaster will kill the Primaris with probability 4/6. So let's say P refers to the probability of a kill.

When you have dealt 3 wounds, either the first one kills the target or not. If it does not, the second one kills the target, then the third one either kills the target or not. If it (the second one) does, either the second one kills the target or not. If it does not, the third one kills the target. If it does, either the third one kills the target or not.

So if you succeed killing the first one you are killing 1 + P * (1 + P) + (1 - P) * 1 models
If you do not succeed in killing the first one you are killing 1 + P models
So the full expression is
(1-P)(1+P) + P(1 + P(1 + P) + (1-P))

If P = 2/3 then this is

1/3*(1+2/3)+2/3*(1+2/3*(1+2/3) + 1/3)) which was calculated in that post. Although I did a rounding error, it's 2.185185... which rounds to 2.19 Primaris models dead for 3 successful wounds.

3 successful wounds are of course equivalent to 6.75 shots. I used them for simplicity.
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PostSubject: Re: On poison e splinter weapons.   Thu Oct 05 2017, 14:42

I use blasters when i go Pure DE, i normally take 3 Units of Trueborns, 2 units with 3 blasters (i never do more than 3).

Is it point efficient? Well that depends. My style is to always move/remove to out position and over saturate the board with equal threats.

Im a huge believer in if you have to much of the same stuff, the opponent will make mistakes or each shot will have less value as hitting a few larger threats.

When fighting against me and they see 2 bombers, 3 ravagers, 3 units of blasters and these S5 melee beasts all moving 1/3-1/2 the board a turn if i wanted while able to shoot still, what do you shoot first? if the Ravagers kill the vehicle the blasters kills the guys, if i kill the ravagers then the blasters kill it and the beast gets the guys.


I'm not saying its balanced, i want Blasters to be cheaper, even 5pts cheaper will help. I also want shredders to be a fix 3 shots or make them 2pts.


But i'm giving examples that they can be "worth it" and used efficiently still.

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PostSubject: Re: On poison e splinter weapons.   Thu Oct 05 2017, 17:28

Blasters are okay. A little overpriced. Not really as good as DL, but you can get more in the same Trueborn unit so it can be useful.
If they get down to 10pts they would become a really interesting alternative to the DL.

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PostSubject: Re: On poison e splinter weapons.   Fri Oct 06 2017, 04:47

I've been watching this thread over the past few days without ever having a chance to comment, so here are a few thoughts in no particular.

1.) Poison has taken a pretty big relative nerf this edition. It's mechanically the same as it used to be, but the same as it used to be isn't nearly as valuable these days. Other guns like Bolters and Shuricats are already wounding higher Toughness models on a 5+ (and as someone else pointed out, wounding vehicles on a 5+ too where poison does not). So that special niche of Poison isn't nearly as special anymore.

Compounded on top of that, monsters--the primary targets for Poison-- have at least double the wounds they used to. Given that, and that the distinction between "anti-monster" and "anti-vehicle" weaponry has eroded so much this edition (not a bad thing, just an observation) the Dark Lance and Blasters are out-competing Poison in it's traditional role. It was never a terrible idea to fire a Lance or Blaster at a monster in 7th ed, but now they're so good at it in comparison why even bother with the Poison?

2.) On the other side of the coin, Hordes are a Big Deal this edition, and that's not just an issue with the current meta. The meta is where it's at right now because changes in the core rules (loss of AP5, no blasts) and in the indices (everything having some way to ignore Morale) have made it significantly harder to deal with hordes and remove them from the board. We've seen the new Guard book, and Conscripts aren't going anywhere from the competitive scene anytime soon, and that doesn't leave me much hope for Gaunt-spam or Green Tide armies getting toned down either.

This is an acute problem for us because we have few good answers to hordes, and essentially none at all in shooting. Considering Splinter weapons aren't effectively filling their old role anymore, I'd rather see them changed to fill this one. I'd be positively tickled with A S4 gun with some bonus to-wound as it's special ability (+1 to wound rolls, re-rolls, something). Even if that merits a point or two increase for Kabalites. It certainly seems fluffier for one--why would an army of soul-stealing space pirates equip their basic troopers with weapons better suited for giant monsters (that they're unlikely to be facing from a fluff perspective) than they are for hunting their favorite humanoid prey? It also would patch up the gaping hole we have in our ability to deal with massed infantry.

3.) Quick thought on blasters, but I'd rather see them bumped up to match Melta guns in cost and just become d6 damage--trading the Melta rule for the 6'' of range essentially. Our army is all about heavy firepower on a fragile frame, and a cheaper gun with only middling damage seems better suited to a horde army or a more durable army. I say double down on that elite nature of DE.
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Dark Elf Dave
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PostSubject: Re: On poison e splinter weapons.   Fri Oct 06 2017, 09:06

If poison was to stay as it is i.e. wounds on a 4+ but they buffed it slightly...how would you buff it?

What about...

Re-roll to wound rolls against T3 or lower?
-1 AP on to wound rolls of a 6?
Fire twice from a Raider (splinter racks)?

Any other ideas?
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PostSubject: Re: On poison e splinter weapons.   Fri Oct 06 2017, 09:29

@Dark Elf Dave wrote:
If poison was to stay as it is i.e. wounds on a 4+ but they buffed it slightly...how would you buff it?

What about...

Re-roll to wound rolls against T3 or lower?
-1 AP on to wound rolls of a 6?
Fire twice from a Raider (splinter racks)?

Any other ideas?

The -1AP on a 6 is pretty much worthless statistically. Giving re-rolls to wound against any non-vehicle would be the most effective of those options although I'd like to see Splinter Racks as a vehicle upgrade too. A unit of 10 Kabalites firing Splinter Rifles in Rapid Fire Range currently does 4.44 unsaved wounds against GEQ. With Splinter Racks and re-rolls to wound that goes up to 13.33, which is far more respectable (although still not a good option vs Hordes due to the cost of the Warriors and Raider vs the cost of their targets).

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PostSubject: Re: On poison e splinter weapons.   Fri Oct 06 2017, 09:35

What about; against Infantry units, Splinter weapons may re-roll wound rolls of 1.

That would provide a buff, make them better against the intended fluff target of poison weaponry, and yet not be a crazy boost in power.
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PostSubject: Re: On poison e splinter weapons.   Fri Oct 06 2017, 09:45

Keep the poison rule as it is but give all splinter weapons a S value and allow re-rolls to wound against anything with T lower than that S. Pistols could be S3, Rifles and Carbines S4 and Cannons S6.

Oh, and change everything from Rapid Fire to Assault (2 for rifles, 3 for carbines, 6 for cannons).

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PostSubject: Re: On poison e splinter weapons.   Fri Oct 06 2017, 09:51

Quote :
Keep the poison rule as it is but give all splinter weapons a S value and allow re-rolls to wound against anything with T lower than that S. Pistols could be S3, Rifles and Carbines S4 and Cannons S6.
That's a pretty neat idea. Basically make poison what it was in 7th edition, and give all weapons a good strength value.
I feel like the "not effective against vehicles" rule should stay, though.

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PostSubject: Re: On poison e splinter weapons.   Fri Oct 06 2017, 10:39

@Mppqlmd wrote:
Quote :
Keep the poison rule as it is but give all splinter weapons a S value and allow re-rolls to wound against anything with T lower than that S. Pistols could be S3, Rifles and Carbines S4 and Cannons S6.
That's a pretty neat idea. Basically make poison what it was in 7th edition, and give all weapons a good strength value.
I feel like the "not effective against vehicles" rule should stay, though.

Yeah, I'd still keep the 6's to wound vehicles element. Even giving re-rolls if S>T would only effect a handful of vehicles in the game, and then only vs cannons, so I think it's actually a pretty neat solution.

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PostSubject: Re: On poison e splinter weapons.   Fri Oct 06 2017, 11:12

Although it makes them weaker than what people are suggesting, I actually prefer that Cannons have the same strength as a rifle. It is just easier rolling to wound for the entire unit as a whole, I prefer how it helps the game flow.
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PostSubject: Re: On poison e splinter weapons.   Fri Oct 06 2017, 11:26

@Dark Elf Dave wrote:
Although it makes them weaker than what people are suggesting, I actually prefer that Cannons have the same strength as a rifle.  It is just easier rolling to wound for the entire unit as a whole, I prefer how it helps the game flow.

For the sake of using 6 different coloured dice I think I could just about cope with differing S values.

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PostSubject: Re: On poison e splinter weapons.   Fri Oct 06 2017, 11:47

So far, re-rolling 1's against infantry would for me be the best buff in terms of how the weapon should work and not making it too powerful which could bring a points increase which I don't want on Kabs.
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PostSubject: Re: On poison e splinter weapons.   Fri Oct 06 2017, 11:58

@Dark Elf Dave wrote:
So far, re-rolling 1's against infantry would for me be the best buff in terms of how the weapon should work and not making it too powerful which could bring a points increase which I don't want on Kabs.

It's an almost negligible buff though. Against GEQ, you go from 0.26 unsaved wounds per shot to 0.30. Even with a squad of 10 in rapid fire range that doesn't even add up to a single extra GEQ kill.

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PostSubject: Re: On poison e splinter weapons.   Fri Oct 06 2017, 12:51

@Count Adhemar wrote:
@Dark Elf Dave wrote:
So far, re-rolling 1's against infantry would for me be the best buff in terms of how the weapon should work and not making it too powerful which could bring a points increase which I don't want on Kabs.

It's an almost negligible buff though. Against GEQ, you go from 0.26 unsaved wounds per shot to 0.30.  Even with a squad of 10 in rapid fire range that doesn't even add up to a single extra GEQ kill.

Right I see...shame

How would it compare to using a Bolter?
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PostSubject: Re: On poison e splinter weapons.   Fri Oct 06 2017, 12:56

With the re-rolls of 1 it's the same as firing a bolter at a GEQ.

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PostSubject: Re: On poison e splinter weapons.   Fri Oct 06 2017, 13:30

@Count Adhemar wrote:
With the re-rolls of 1 it's the same as firing a bolter at a GEQ.

And I think that would put them in a good spot. Do they need to be better than a Bolter at firing at GEQ?
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PostSubject: Re: On poison e splinter weapons.   Fri Oct 06 2017, 14:12

@Burnage wrote:
@Count Adhemar wrote:
With the re-rolls of 1 it's the same as firing a bolter at a GEQ.

And I think that would put them in a good spot. Do they need to be better than a Bolter at firing at GEQ?

Unless we get other, better options for dealing with hordes, yes they do! This is essentially our only option against Hordes. We don't have flamers, we don't have 'blast' weapons, we don't have close combat options - it's splinter weapons or nothing!

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PostSubject: Re: On poison e splinter weapons.   Fri Oct 06 2017, 14:21

I'd rather have a flamer shredder and a S4 liquefier and leave splinter weapons as they are.
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PostSubject: Re: On poison e splinter weapons.   Fri Oct 06 2017, 14:29

@Logan Frost wrote:
I'd rather have a flamer shredder and a S4 liquefier and leave splinter weapons as they are.

I'd like both please. Given some of the unbelievable stuff that has been coming out in the codexes so far I think we'll need all the above at a minimum in order to be competitive.

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