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 Reaperspam?

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amishprn86
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PostSubject: Re: Reaperspam?   Thu Aug 03 2017, 03:14

You take Reapers over Ravagers b.c you can get them to be +1 toughness.

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Jimsolo
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PostSubject: Re: Reaperspam?   Thu Aug 03 2017, 04:04

@amishprn86 wrote:
You take Reapers over Ravagers b.c you can get them to be +1 toughness.

That is a nice bennie if you can afford the haemie.
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Jimsolo
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PostSubject: Re: Reaperspam?   Fri Aug 04 2017, 03:29

I DO think that Reapers benefit more from CP rerolls, though. That's pretty hard to represent with the statistics, though.
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Lord Johan
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PostSubject: Re: Reaperspam?   Fri Aug 04 2017, 05:47

If you set a fixed reroll threshold in advance or a reroll algorithm it can be represented. For example: "I will reroll any number of shots of 1." Then you will get (2+3+4+5+6)/5*5/6+1/6*3.5 = approx 3.92 shots from reapers, but will keep this bonus after firing successive reapers with (5/6)^n chance.

Avg. wounds for a reaper vs. T7 tanks (note you should reduce damage if it does not have infinite wounds) using beam mode is 2/3*SHOTS*2/3 and avg. damage is 3.5. So for the rerolling thing you get 2/3 * ((2+3+4+5+6)/5*5/6+1/6*3.5) * 2/3 * 3.5 = approx 6.092 dmg dealt.

Avg. wounds for 3 dissie vs. T7 Sv3+ tanks is 3* 2/3 * 2 * 1/3 * 2 * 5/6 = 2.22...

So you can solve and you will on average not be able to reroll after firing 3.8 reapers. Here is how successive reapers "decay" in number of shots ((2+3+4+5+6)/5*5/6+1/6*3.5)*(5/6)^n+(1-(5/6)^n)*3.5


n | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 3.5 (1 - (5/6)^n) + 3.91667 (5/6)^n
3.84722 | 3.78935 | 3.74113 | 3.70094 | 3.66745

and in damage your expected reaper damage after firing n reapers is


5.98457 | 5.89455 | 5.81953 | 5.75702 | 5.70492

and if we are firing 12 successive reapers vs a T7 Winfinity vehicle using this rule we get
sum (2/3*2/3*3.5*((2+3+4+5+6)/5*5/6+1/6*3.5)*(5/6)^n+(1-(5/6)^n)*3.5)), n = 0...11 = appx 68.78 damage dealt
vs if we didn't have rerolls we would get 12 * 2/3 * 3.5 * 2/3 * 3.5 = 65.33... damage dealt

but yeah f course if you do not have a fixed algorithm and are flexible it can't be represented with statistics and is probably worth more too
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Jimsolo
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PostSubject: Re: Reaperspam?   Fri Aug 04 2017, 13:54

Yeah, that's the problem. Using the reroll or not would be pretty situational. (If you get a 1 or 2 on a damage roll against a fresh vehicle, you're likely to reroll it, and likely to improve your performance. But get a 2 on a terminator, or a Rhino with only 1-2 wounds left, and there's no point.)
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dumpeal
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PostSubject: Re: Reaperspam?   Fri Aug 04 2017, 14:25

Plus, the number of reroll is far from infinite. To be conservative, you could say you only reroll the 1. But it would only shift the 3.5 average to 3.72 average.

But it is important to keep in mind that while it's okay to average the hits and damage, the number of hit is very low for the statistical averaging to really apply. Which mean, if you play 500 games, the reaper will underperform the ravager, but is more subject to overwelming efficiency. You just need to be lucky for 3-4 D6 hit to really change the situation, while being lucky with some ravagers hits will merely strip a few wound.
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Lord Johan
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PostSubject: Re: Reaperspam?   Fri Aug 04 2017, 15:25

How did you get 3.72 average? Above I used the assumption you use 1 reroll only. Your dice roll probs are 1/6*6 + 1/6*5 + ... 1/6*2 + 1/6*3.5 = 3.9166...
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dumpeal
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PostSubject: Re: Reaperspam?   Fri Aug 04 2017, 16:10

@Lord Johan wrote:
How did you get 3.72 average? Above I used the assumption you use 1 reroll only. Your dice roll probs are 1/6*6 + 1/6*5 + ... 1/6*2 + 1/6*3.5 = 3.9166...

I calculated fast. My bad, but you're right.
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Jimsolo
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PostSubject: Re: Reaperspam?   Fri Aug 04 2017, 17:34

The Reaper has two aspects (number of shots and damage) which both receive big benefits from CP rerolls, I think.

The Ravager is no slouch, and is definitely better against hordes of weenies. But I think those rerolls would be a big deal in the situations where it matters (LoW vehicles, f'rex).
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