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 Dark Scythes or Void Lances?

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lcfr
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PostSubject: Dark Scythes or Void Lances?   Wed Aug 02 2017, 01:01

Voidraven fans, what's your go to?

Intuitively I'm feeling Dark Scythes, feels like the Lances aren't actually better against anything in an average case but I can't math hammer that many variables.
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PostSubject: Re: Dark Scythes or Void Lances?   Wed Aug 02 2017, 01:11

Void Lances look better to me, but maybe that's just me.
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PostSubject: Re: Dark Scythes or Void Lances?   Wed Aug 02 2017, 01:59

The void lances look like the winner for me as well.


I think someone mathhammered it and the scythes came out on top. Can't factor in range though.
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PostSubject: Re: Dark Scythes or Void Lances?   Wed Aug 02 2017, 03:31

lcfr wrote:
Voidraven fans, what's your go to?

Intuitively I'm feeling Dark Scythes, feels like the Lances aren't actually better against anything in an average case but I can't math hammer that many variables.

I agree.
For me, the Voidraven performs the role of anti heavy-infantry and since Dark Scythes are basically better Blasters, they complement that role nicely.

If I want anti-tank I'd rather pick something else because in most cases the Void Lances just are not better than ordinary Dark Lances. And we can get Dark Lances on other platforms for a much smaller price.

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PostSubject: Re: Dark Scythes or Void Lances?   Wed Aug 02 2017, 04:38

According to my mathhammerings a few threads below, Dark Scythes are slightly better anti-tank than Dark Lances too. This is because d3*d3 average is 4 while d6 average is 3.5. So all other things being equal the Scythe is a Dark Lance with 14% more damage on average vs tanks.

For the specific case of T8 tanks Void Lance > Dark Scythe > Dark Lance. This may also be the case for T9. Specifically vs T9 tanks you wound 50% more often but do 14% less dmg w VL. Any lower and it's Dark Scythe > Dark Lance = Void Lance. Above T9, Scythe is better again.
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PostSubject: Re: Dark Scythes or Void Lances?   Wed Aug 02 2017, 07:17

vs T7
2 Void lances will do 0.88 wounds before saves
2 Dark Scythes will do 1.77 wounds before saves

vs T8
2 Void lances will do 0.88 wounds before saves
2 Dark Scythes will do 1.33 wounds before saves

vs T9
2 Void lances will do 0.66 wounds before saves
2 Dark Scythes will do 0.88 wounds before saves

as the vehicle and weapon costs are the same and the Ap is the same (-4) the only other difference is the damage dice (d6 vs d3).

So you are more likely to inflict a wound on a target with the Scythes but on average the Lances do equal or more damage


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PostSubject: Re: Dark Scythes or Void Lances?   Wed Aug 02 2017, 07:35

Massaen wrote:
vs T7
2 Void lances will do 0.88 wounds before saves
2 Dark Scythes will do 1.77 wounds before saves

vs T8
2 Void lances will do 0.88 wounds before saves
2 Dark Scythes will do 1.33 wounds before saves

vs T9
2 Void lances will do 0.66 wounds before saves
2 Dark Scythes will do 0.88 wounds before saves

as the vehicle and weapon costs are the same and the Ap is the same (-4) the only other difference is the damage dice (d6 vs d3).

So you are more likely to inflict a wound on a target with the Scythes but on average the Lances do equal or more damage

I agree that the scythes are more reliable to deal some damage but against extremely though stuff deal less and against T10+ the scythes win again, (is there t10?). But how do you get the same damage for them? I never get the same damage.
For t7 and below it is in favour of the scythes (2*1.77=3.54 >3.5*0.88=3.08) while t8 and 9 the lances do more damage.
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PostSubject: Re: Dark Scythes or Void Lances?   Wed Aug 02 2017, 08:08

He is talking about wounds.

Vs T5 to T7:
VL: 1 shot * 2/3 chance to wound = 0.66... wounds * 3.5 damage average = 2.333...
DS: 2 shots * 2/3 chance to wound = 1.333... wounds * 2 damage average = 2.666...

Vs T8
VL: 1 shot * 2/3 chance to wound = 0.66... wounds * 3.5 damage average = 2.333...
DS: 2 shots * 1/2 chance to wound = 1 wounds * 2 damage average = 2

Vs T9
VL: 1 shot * 1/2 chance to wound = 0.5 wounds * 3.5 damage average = 1.75
DS: 2 shots * 1/3 chance to wound = 0.666... wounds * 2 damage average = 1.333...

Vs T10 & above up to a max of T16 that I don't think anything has
VL: 1 shot * 1/3 chance to wound = 0.333... wounds * 3.5 damage average = 1.1666...
DS: 2 shots * 1/3 chance to wound = 0.666... wounds * 2 damage average = 1.333...
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PostSubject: Re: Dark Scythes or Void Lances?   Wed Aug 02 2017, 08:14

Jeah, so nowhere is it the same. While Massaen mentioned the lances are always equal or more, I was wondering if I missed something, but your math seems to agree with me.
T7> or 10< the DS wins and T8 and 9 the lance wins, that is what I said right?
Sorry if I was unclear, probably because I call wounds before you roll damage and I call it damage at then end since well you rolled for damage not wounds... Sorry if that makes things unclear.
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PostSubject: Re: Dark Scythes or Void Lances?   Wed Aug 02 2017, 08:19

Well, saying that the Dark Scythe does more wounds is technically always correct even though the wounds do less damage. This is why Dark Scythe is better vs. models that have few wounds. The wording is confusing on several levels though because the end results of damage are again called wounds.

Eg.
Vs several T9 W2 models
VL: 1 shot * 1/2 chance to wound = 0.5 wounds * (1+2+2+2+2+2, since you can't do more than 2 damage)/6 damage average = 0.916...
DS: 2 shots * 1/3 chance to wound = 0.666... wounds * (1+2+2)/3 damage average = 1,111...

Edit: changed from W3 to W2 because W3 is too confusing.
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PostSubject: Re: Dark Scythes or Void Lances?   Wed Aug 02 2017, 08:45

To expand - using avg damage rolls...

vs T7
2 Void lances will do 0.88 wounds before saves = 3.08 wounds
2 Dark Scythes will do 1.77 wounds before saves = 3.54 wounds

vs T8
2 Void lances will do 0.88 wounds before saves = 3.08 wounds
2 Dark Scythes will do 1.33 wounds before saves = 2.66 wounds

vs T9
2 Void lances will do 0.66 wounds before saves = 2.31 wounds
2 Dark Scythes will do 0.88 wounds before saves = 1.76 wounds

The difference is so marginal on average its not funny. BUT the range of results is wider for the lance.

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PostSubject: Re: Dark Scythes or Void Lances?   Wed Aug 02 2017, 10:17

And you can kill more models at once with the Scythes.

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PostSubject: Re: Dark Scythes or Void Lances?   Wed Aug 02 2017, 10:55

I think it depends mostly on your local meta. Have a lot of Knights etc (I asume they are T8+?) Then the lances might be better. But your wider range for the lance if you mean more different targets are still ok?
The difference between t7 for both is similar to t8. There are 2 units of t8 in the whole index we have. Now sure some others might have slightly more, but I think we can say that unless your local meta relies heavily on knights you will meet t7> a lot more.

If you mean range as in distance then yes the void lance has a bit better reach. The major advantage of the void lance for me though is the d6 damage is great for using rerolls. Which then adds over a wound on average if you reroll any 1 or 2, which leads to quite a bit of extra oomph.
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PostSubject: Re: Dark Scythes or Void Lances?   Wed Aug 02 2017, 11:29

Void lance vs T7 at bs3+ using a command point to reroll a damage roll dice if it's a 1 or 2.

Wounds: 2/3 * 2 * 2/3 = 8/9 = 0.8888...
Damage: there is a 1/9 chance both lances miss, and 4/9 both lances hit, so 4/9 one lance hits. Furthermore if one lance hits then there is a 1/3 chance it doesn't wound and if both hit there is a 1/9 chance neither wounds, 4/9 both wound, and 4/9 one wounds.
If one lance hits you have 2/3 probability of (3+4+5+6)/4 = 4.5 dmg. Else you reroll and get 3.5 dmg. So damage is 2/3*4.5+1/3*3.5.
If both hit and wound, 4/9 chance you get 2*4.5 = 9 dmg. 1/9 chance both are 1-2 and you get 1.75+3.5 wounds. Otherwise you get 4.5 +3.5 wounds.

Putting it all together, 4/9*2/3*(2/3*4.5+1/3*3.5) + 4/9*(4/9*(2/3*4.5+1/3*3.5) +4/9*(4/9*(4.5+3.5)+4/9*9+1/9*(1.75+3.5))) = 3 + 485/729 = apprx 3.67 dmg

Vs 2 Dark Scythe, no rerolls: 2 * 2/3 * 2 * 2/3 * 2 = 32/9 = 3.55... damage.

Right?

I would personally say take D. Scythe unless you know you want the Void Lance for some particular reason eg. Know you are vs Land Raiders or know you need range. But you can make it better than the Dark Scythe vs weaker tanks too if commit to spending your stratagem on it if you roll 1 or 2 dmg, which you will then need to use on your Void Lance 4/9*1/3+4/9*5/9 = 32/81 approx 40% of the time. Meaning if you take two with VL with this plan, then 40% of the time you will have already used the command point before your second Void Raven and it will "revert" back to being worse. But it might be solid to bring 1 with this plan.

Edited: fractions are hard. And you would pick the lower of the 1 and 2 you roll to reroll, so 1.75 not 1.5 since you roll 2 ones only 25% of the time.
Edit2: gah!!
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PostSubject: Re: Dark Scythes or Void Lances?   Wed Aug 02 2017, 14:44

Dark scythes are better. They are just about the same against vehicles (except T8), but the utility against elite infantry is just worth it.

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PostSubject: Re: Dark Scythes or Void Lances?   Wed Aug 02 2017, 18:20

Yeah I Scyths more. I have ravagers for AT. The Scyths will help more against those pesky Marines and lighter armour

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