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 Expected wounds for Drukhari index weapons vs. a variety of targets

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Lord Johan
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PostSubject: Expected wounds for Drukhari index weapons vs. a variety of targets   Mon Jul 31 2017, 12:54

Hello all!

I was particularly annoyed that I was unable to kill some poxwalkers. I figured I had better calculate what is good against those. I ended up simulating all of our ranged weapons vs. a variety of targets. I'm planning to do close combat weapons later.

Here's the algorithm I ended up with (MS Excel)
Formula:
 

Opponents used:
Code:

         GEQ MEQ PEQ TEQ DEQ LREQ PWEQ DPNEQ
T         3   4   4   4   7   8    3    6
VEHICLE   0   0   0   0   1   1    0    0
W         1   1   2   2   8   12   1    10
Sv        5   3   3   2   3   3    7    3
INVUL     7   7   7   5   7   7    7    5
FNP       0   0   0   0   0   0    5    5
INFANTRY  1   1   1   1   0   0    1    0

Weapon example:
Spoiler:
 

Results, average unsaved wounds:



BS1+ here means what happens when every shot hits, even though that's not possible in-game. To get the effect of BS from this you multiply by how many shots hit on average. For the BS3+ table it's simply multiply by 2/3 except for the liquifier gun.


old results with 1 wound termies:
 


Thoughts?

Edit1: Added the step about MWRoll
Edit2: Reading this again noticed it should have been 1-((7-FEELNOPAIN)/6)^(damage-wounds+1) not 1-((FEELNOPAIN-1)/6)^(damage-wounds+1). Fixed and results also fixed and reupped. This affected the PWEQ result only.
Edit3: For some reason D. Cannon earlier had S4 AP1. Now it's fixed at S5 AP3.
Edit4: Fixed variable damage vs. W2 and fixed TEQ to have 2 wounds. Old results spoilered, new results uploaded.
Edit5: There was another issue I didn't realize at first but did thanks to Strange Dark One - the variable AP for Liq. gun average needs to be different vs. Sv5 than vs. Sv4 which was not accounted for. With this fix 1 liquifier causes 1.65278 wounds vs GEQ and 2 do 3.3056. Meaning you lose 1/10th of a wound per liq, but liq. is still best vs GEQ bar Casket. I uploaded the fixed table.


Last edited by Lord Johan on Tue Aug 01 2017, 18:57; edited 10 times in total
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Myrvn
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PostSubject: Re: Expected wounds for Drukhari index weapons vs. a variety of targets   Mon Jul 31 2017, 14:42

This is probably just me.. but what are the various acronyms? I've got GEQ and TEQ.. not sure on PEQ.

Looks really cool though. I like it.
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Lord Johan
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PostSubject: Re: Expected wounds for Drukhari index weapons vs. a variety of targets   Mon Jul 31 2017, 14:48

I'm a bit concerned about posting because I don't want to violate IP rules. That's also why I didn't post the weapons table I used.

However, I guess this isn't that specific. G=Guardsman, M=Marine, P=Primaris, T=Termie, D=Dread, LR=Leman Russ, PW=Poxwalker, DPN=Daemon Prince of Nurgle
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Myrvn
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PostSubject: Re: Expected wounds for Drukhari index weapons vs. a variety of targets   Mon Jul 31 2017, 15:18

I'm guessing you're fine on those. Looks cool!
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Lord Johan
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PostSubject: Re: Expected wounds for Drukhari index weapons vs. a variety of targets   Mon Jul 31 2017, 15:31

Yes. It's very interesting and results so far seem to check out. It's possible there's some error in some of the special rules. If you find it, tell me. This specifically would give incorrect results for a damage d6 ossefactor vs a 6 wound model at least. But it should be ok for all used.

I'm still interpreting the results but... Apparently the twin liquifier gun is our best anti-horde gun for killing guardsmen. It's better than a rapid fire Splinter Cannon in every circumstance for BS3+. Even a single liquifier is better than a rapid fire splinter cannon vs. GEQ at BS3+. Our second best anti GEQ is the Talos' stinger pod. (Or the Casket of Flensing)
You should never fire implosion missiles on your Voidraven since shatterfield is superior for every target. You should use monoscythes, not shatterfield vs. T3W1 models with only Disgustingly Resilient for defence because that has double chance to penetrate FNP (I did not figure this out last game, I used shatterfields).
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WildCandy
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PostSubject: Re: Expected wounds for Drukhari index weapons vs. a variety of targets   Mon Jul 31 2017, 15:55

Teq has two wounds? Should we double wounds for some weapons?
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The Strange Dark One
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PostSubject: Re: Expected wounds for Drukhari index weapons vs. a variety of targets   Mon Jul 31 2017, 15:59

Thanks a lot, that is some very good overview to have. However, if I might add you could alter the way multi-damage weapons are represented.

I assume you treat Blasters as straight D2 weapons against PEQ, since D3 averages on a 2. However, that D3 never fully comes into effect and in reality it will be more like a 1,66. After all, a 3 will only do 2 damage.
This gives the following formula for average wounds: (1 + 2 + 2) / 3 = 1,66

Naturally, in the case of a Seargent it is correct to use an average of 2 (as he has 3 wounds).
Of course, this applies to all weapons with randomized damage that attack multi wounded models. In the case of Lance vs PEQ, it would do 1,83 damage on average.

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Lord Johan
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PostSubject: Re: Expected wounds for Drukhari index weapons vs. a variety of targets   Mon Jul 31 2017, 16:45

Excellent points, thank you.

I used the following values for no. shots and damage: d6 = 3.5, d3=2,  2d6 pick highest=4.47

I've manually fixed it now so that damage for blasters, blast pistols, dark scythes is 5/3 vs. primaris and damage for dark lances, heat lances and void lances is 11/6 vs primaris. For heat lance half range I used 2-1/6*1/6=71/36 for damage vs primaris. The sergeant is too much of a special case and was ignored.

Terminators also changed to 2 wounds and got the above fixes to variable damage. I uploaded the fixed table.
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lcfr
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PostSubject: Re: Expected wounds for Drukhari index weapons vs. a variety of targets   Mon Jul 31 2017, 17:15

There was recent chatter in the forum regarding the use of Taloi and whether they were any good, but maybe a trio of them fitted with Stinger Pods and Twin LGs is an appropriate answer to GEQ; a Talos can handle more las fire than a Venom, recover wounds in cc with the help of a Chronos, and has the best anti-T3 weapons available to us...hard to argue with the number, maybe a gang of Taloi deserve a chance ?
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WildCandy
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PostSubject: Re: Expected wounds for Drukhari index weapons vs. a variety of targets   Mon Jul 31 2017, 17:18

Taloi with two splinter cannons and twin liquifiers costs hefty? Good platform especially with haemy or so I have heard.
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Lord Johan
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PostSubject: Re: Expected wounds for Drukhari index weapons vs. a variety of targets   Mon Jul 31 2017, 17:21

There is one caveat: Talos has BS4+ for some reason.

Here's how it will look with only the Stinger Pod column adjusted to bs4+


It's still better than a bs3+ splinter cannon, however (and obviously better than a bs4+ splinter cannon). But the Talos will normally mount 2 splinter cannons which do have a better output in rapid fire range than the Stinger Pod.

This personally has me thinking of Wracks with 2x Liq as those will provide 3.5 wounds on average vs GEQ, while kabalites with 5 rapid fire splinter rifles will provide 2.2222... wounds and if you add a shredder it's 2.642 wounds.

Edit: For good measure here's our 5 man squads (my favorite) calculated from the main table

RF=Rapid fire range, 5k+blast = 4 kabalites and 5th with a blaster, 5k+bl+bp = the sybarite has a blast pistol in addition, 5wypist=5 wytches shooting pistols, +gre = one throws a grenade, + bp+gre = one throws a grenade, hekatrix fires blast pistol. 5 kabalites + shredder, by the way, not pictured, is significantly worse vs everything than 5 kabalites + blaster except vs GEQ and PWEQ where the shredder gets you 0.3-0.4 extra wounds.

Edit2: And here are two heavy support choices, ravager and talos, with talos adjusted for its lower ballistic skill with the non-liq weapons (just multiply the non-liq component by 3/4).

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