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 Ynnari Special Rules "Leak"

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BetrayTheWorld
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PostSubject: Re: Ynnari Special Rules "Leak"   Wed Feb 15 2017, 16:50

@Count Adhemar wrote:
@amorrowlyday wrote:
I'm sorry what? Blast weapons are inherently MORE accurate. The math says so as I've demonstrated repeatedly.

I've missed that and really not sure how you would even go about demonstrating it mathematically when you need to take into account random direction and distance of scatter and the proximity of models to each other in the target unit.

It's quite simple, really. The direction of scatter doesn't matter. You just calculate your total chance of scattering at all, and compare that to your typical chance of missing with a normal shot.

This chart shows all possible roll outcomes of rolling 2 dice. There are 36 possible outcomes:

(1,1) (1,2) (1,3) (1,4) (1,5) (1,6)
(2,1) (2,2) (2,3) (2,4) (2,5) (2,6)
(3,1) (3,2) (3,3) (3,4) (3,5) (3,6)
(4,1) (4,2) (4,3) (4,4) (4,5) (4,6)
(5,1) (5,2) (5,3) (5,4) (5,5) (5,6)
(6,1) (6,2) (6,3) (6,4) (6,5) (6,6)

On a scatter roll totaling 2-4, you will never scatter, and on a 5 or 6 you'll still hit your target. You -could- also hit your target unit on higher numbers, but lets assume we're shooting at a single 50mm model.

So that's 15 results out of 36 where you'll always hit your target due to your BS. If we divide that out, that means you have a 58.3% chance of missing IF scatter becomes an issue. But scatter doesn't become an issue unless you roll an arrow. So we have to calculate that in as well. Since the chance to roll an arrow is 66.6%, and you have to BOTH roll an arrow AND roll higher than a 6 to scatter, if you multiply 58.3% by 66.6%, that will give you your total chance of missing your single-model infantry target. In this case, that is 38.8%, which means you have a 61.2% chance of hitting your target. That is less than the 66.6% chance you'd have with a normal weapon, so it is slightly less accurate against a single model.

With the difference being that small, having a larger unit as your target will likely completely eliminate any mathematical disadvantage on the part of the blast weapon.

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amorrowlyday
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PostSubject: Re: Ynnari Special Rules "Leak"   Wed Feb 15 2017, 18:01

Thanks for doing the explanation for me! I'm going to go a little further on your last comment though: because a 25mm base is ~1" and a small blast marker is 3", therefore has a radius of 1.5", I know you know this because it's where your 5-6 comment comes from, but noting it is important for the end of calculation observation you conclude with:

If concentric circles of units occur, a commonality against proper shredder targets like marines or things on 25's, it doesn't just eliminate the advantage of straight BS weapons it surpasses it. If they are base to base that's another +1 to your maximal scatter distance while still hitting something, bringing you just over but functionally equivalent to straight BS4, and if they are spread that's +3. and you're likelihood of hitting just spiked into the mid 70's and with a secondary concentric circle you'r almost definitely getting a hit.
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PostSubject: Re: Ynnari Special Rules "Leak"   Wed Feb 15 2017, 19:46

And we can skew that in an even greater favor of hits with psychic powers like unbind souls (new revenant powers are awesome), runes of battle powers and telepathy powers that increase ballistic skill for the unit firing, I know a huge downside to the shredder is range but I've used shredderborn to great effect, at least in my playgroup, to fight Marines simply because it has a better wound ability then splinter weapons on anything 6 or less, I'm not a good player by any means but I'm learning and I like trying the stuff that no one really uses and says is crap, so I tried it and found it worked better then the warriors in a raider did simply cause it forced more save rolls then the warriors.
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PostSubject: Re: Ynnari Special Rules "Leak"   Wed Feb 15 2017, 20:18

Against orks they are great as long as you take another unit to assault with. They have asucky save, tend to cluster in terrain and have large numbers thus I rarely miss completely.
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Count Adhemar
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PostSubject: Re: Ynnari Special Rules "Leak"   Wed Feb 15 2017, 22:18

@amorrowlyday wrote:
Thanks for doing the explanation for me! I'm going to go a little further on your last comment though: because a 25mm base is ~1" and a small blast marker is 3", therefore has a radius of 1.5", I know you know this because it's where your 5-6 comment comes from, but noting it is important for the end of calculation observation you conclude with:

If concentric circles of units occur, a commonality against proper shredder targets like marines or things on 25's, it doesn't just eliminate the advantage of straight BS weapons  it surpasses it. If they are base to base that's another +1 to your maximal scatter distance while still hitting something, bringing you just over but functionally equivalent to straight BS4,  and if they are spread that's +3. and you're likelihood of hitting just spiked into the mid 70's and with a secondary concentric circle you'r almost definitely getting a hit.

I think that's pretty much made my point though. In order to be efficient you basically need to be firing at a unit that has just arrived by deep strike and hasn't used a run move to spread out. When properly spread out, a 1.5" radius blast on a 1" base target will hit 1 target at most.

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PostSubject: Re: Ynnari Special Rules "Leak"   Wed Feb 15 2017, 23:26

Correct, but that isn't really a problem you're basically auto hitting at that point and if you hit something with a shredder you're wounding it. Vs a splinter rifle with a mere 50% chance to cause 1 wound in rapid fire range. Against most things the ap is irrelevant.
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PostSubject: Re: Ynnari Special Rules "Leak"   Thu Feb 16 2017, 01:12

I think a lot of us are seeing more tightly packed infantry, Count. Anything that needs cover isn't going to have the advantage of always being 2" apart.
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PostSubject: Re: Ynnari Special Rules "Leak"   Thu Feb 16 2017, 11:27

Yeah that's why I was always slightly skeptical of the dislike of small blast templates. Admittedly, I haven't used them much, but from an outside observer they seem to have some distinct advantages over standard weapons.

As BTW has demonstrated they're roughly equivalent to a single BS4 shot at hitting an intended target on a 25mm base*, with the added bonus of perhaps clipping another model if you miss. Furthermore, if you've got another model at max 2" coherency, then you should have an 8% chance of hitting 2 models**.

However, the interesting thing about small blasts to me is that you can pick a target. It's basically Precision Shots that you don't need to roll a 6 for. So, if my clipping's right, a shredder is basically equivalent to this weapon profile:

BS4 12" S6 AP- Assault 1, Shred, Pseudo-Precision Shots

With an added bonus of maybe turning into Assault 2, and being more likely to hit something if fired into a larger unit.

Doesn't seem so bad for 5pts. Also, seems much more suited to a sniper-type weapon than a horde clearer. I wonder if people have been using Small Blasts for a purpose they're not quite suited to? Definitely seem to be better for wounding Sarges or plasma-gunners than clearing hordes.

*If I've got my maths right with that one as a 2" scatter should see the edge of the template clip the edge of the base. If not, then it's slightly better than BS3 (~41% to hit).
**Not including it scattering past the original target and striking 2 others

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PostSubject: Re: Ynnari Special Rules "Leak"   Thu Feb 16 2017, 11:55

@ snipermode:
No because you still remove the closest models not the ones under the template.
And the scattering is what makes them so nice, if you scatter you often get 2/3 models. Since they are up to 2 inches apart, you usually move around 3 inches: you end bang on target of the next, except you usually go at an angle, not strait at it. Thus you grab the one behind and next to your original target. If you land only move 1 or 2 inch away you will likely grab 2 (if directly at the next) or 3 if in between 2 others.
And in cover it is quite likely you hit at least 3. And of course against vehicles it can be quite hard to miss them at all, especially nice if they are bubble wrapped.
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PostSubject: Re: Ynnari Special Rules "Leak"   Thu Feb 16 2017, 13:39

@ynneadwraith: Indeed. You still remove the closest model, not the one you hit with the template. (Barring Barrage weapons.)
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PostSubject: Re: Ynnari Special Rules "Leak"   Thu Feb 16 2017, 14:15

Wut? So I've scattered 6" to the side hitting 2 models, but it's actually 2 models 8" away from where I hit that get killed?

Is it the same with flamers, or is it just blast templates that are face-palm-worthy?

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PostSubject: Re: Ynnari Special Rules "Leak"   Thu Feb 16 2017, 14:17

Template and blasts both, unless they are barrage.
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PostSubject: Re: Ynnari Special Rules "Leak"   Thu Feb 16 2017, 14:26

Ugh. Ah well.

BS4 12" S6 AP- Assault 1, Shred, at least 10% chance of being Assault 2

Is that worth 5pts?

Should still be a flamer with monofilament.

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PostSubject: Re: Ynnari Special Rules "Leak"   Thu Feb 16 2017, 14:33

@ynneadwraith.
Jeah the first time I noticed that it blew my mind as well. It makes absolutely no sense, but GW put it in a book. On the other hand, it does mean that the in real life less accurate weapons do not become snipers which is a good thing.

But it seems they are not worth it for most players, but against orks I kinda like them. Also because it is a cheap way to blast open some transports and still do fine with regular troop killing for normal kabalites.
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PostSubject: Re: Ynnari Special Rules "Leak"   Thu Feb 16 2017, 14:37

I think definitely worth 5 points.

My strategy would be DS heavy. First wave (first down or first on the board) focuses down transports. Next group in goes after passengers. 4 S6 blasts with Shred should make mincemeat out of most anything. Or at least do some serious damage.
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PostSubject: Re: Ynnari Special Rules "Leak"   Thu Feb 16 2017, 18:08

Absolutely worth 5 points. I don't run venoms anymore. 5 kabalites with a shredder in a base raider is 100pts. Definitely worth the price reduction.
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PostSubject: Re: Ynnari Special Rules "Leak"   Thu Feb 16 2017, 18:50

Dont know guys. Small Blasts - the only one small blast that many opponents gives a damn is a plasma cannon. S7 AP2 Hurts, monsters, infantry, 2+ infantry, light vehicles. I'd yet to face anyone who still think small blasts are joke when that small blast is a plasma cannon.

If it doesnt have this low AP people usually wont even pay too much attention. It can scatter, it can be blocked by armor. All this warrant loose formation? Not always.

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PostSubject: Re: Ynnari Special Rules "Leak"   Thu Feb 16 2017, 20:50

@amorrowlyday wrote:
Absolutely worth 5 points. I don't run venoms anymore. 5 kabalites with a shredder in a base raider is 100pts. Definitely worth the price reduction.

You like having your Raiders in charge range of their targets?

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PostSubject: Re: Ynnari Special Rules "Leak"   Thu Feb 16 2017, 21:27

@Count Adhemar wrote:
@amorrowlyday wrote:
Absolutely worth 5 points. I don't run venoms anymore. 5 kabalites with a shredder in a base raider is 100pts. Definitely worth the price reduction.

You like having your Raiders in charge range of their targets?

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PostSubject: Re: Ynnari Special Rules "Leak"   Thu Feb 16 2017, 22:13

Absolutely. If the rest of my army is going to be in charge range the safest place for my raiders is in the mix.
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PostSubject: Re: Ynnari Special Rules "Leak"   Thu Feb 16 2017, 23:14

Giving a Shredder to a sacrificial unit seems even more of a waste but each to their own.

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PostSubject: Re: Ynnari Special Rules "Leak"   Fri Feb 17 2017, 01:21

With as much stuff as I plan to have up in my opponent's face, if they're prioritizing the Shredderborn we're probably sitting pretty.
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PostSubject: Re: Ynnari Special Rules "Leak"   Fri Feb 17 2017, 13:27

@Jimsolo wrote:
With as much stuff as I plan to have up in my opponent's face, if they're prioritizing the Shredderborn we're probably sitting pretty.

I like how your mind works. Smile
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PostSubject: Re: Ynnari Special Rules "Leak"   Fri Feb 17 2017, 14:29

The Ynnari seem like they favor either clustered gunlines or raw, naked aggression lists. The latter is where I'm a little more comfortable.
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PostSubject: Re: Ynnari Special Rules "Leak"   Sat Feb 18 2017, 03:58

@Jimsolo wrote:
The Ynnari seem like they favor either clustered gunlines or raw, naked aggression lists. The latter is where I'm a little more comfortable.

I agree with this. Out of curiosity, does anyone know of units from any codex that are capable of reliably killing themselves?

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