HomeDark Eldar WikiDark Eldar ResourcesNull CityFAQUsergroupsRegisterLog in
Share | 
 

 Shooting Weapon Analysis

View previous topic View next topic Go down 
AuthorMessage
fisheyes
Wych
avatar

Posts : 813
Join date : 2016-02-18

PostSubject: Shooting Weapon Analysis   Wed Aug 24 2016, 07:03

Hi fellow Archons, Fisheyes here again. A few months back I did a fairly successful thread analyzing our CC units to see who was better charging out of a transport (http://www.thedarkcity.net/t13836-assault-troop-analysis).

This time I would like to take a look at how effective our shooting can be. To do this we will analyze some standard weapons vs some common enemy units under a few scenarios (MEQ, TEQ, GEQ, Necron Wraith, Wraith Knight). This will be done by calculating the amount of wounds a single weapon can inflict using the formula below. I am assuming no cover saves, splinter rifle is at 12” range, the Necron Wraiths have RP (because of their Harvest formation), and the Wraith Knight doesn’t have an Invulnerable save.

Wounds = (# of shots)x(chance to hit)x (chance to wound)x(save if applicable)x(FNP/RP if applicable)

Unfortunately the amount of wounds a single weapon can inflict is not a very good indication of a weapons strength. To fully analyze this, we will divide the amount of wounds inflicted by the weapons cost (when possible) using the Special/Heavy Weapon Wargear cost at the front of the book. This may skew the numbers slightly, as some units can take these weapons for less than the posted price.

Wounds/Cost = (Wounds Inflicted by Weapon)/(Weapon Cost)

I will also be analyzing some shooting VS common AV values. This is a little tricky, due to the randomness of Penetrating Hits. To make this easier, I am going to count HP inflicted (since there are no Wounds vs AV), and assume Penetrating Hits = 1.5 HP. I don’t have a probability chart in front of me to analyze the melta from the Heat Lance, so if someone else could do those calcs I would be very appreciative.

Something to note is that this analysis is for WEAPONS, not UNITS. So a Trueborn squad with 4 blasters would be more cost effective than a Warrior squad with only a single blaster (at least in terms of Wounds/Cost). This analysis also doesn’t put any weight into the range of these weapons (so a Blaster at 18” has the same rank as a Dark Lance at 36”).

One of the conclusions that we can draw is that other than the Heat Lance, our anti-tank weapons don’t care about AV above 12. Any other conclusions people can draw from this data?

Without further rambling, see my chart below. If anyone has questions or comments on how to improve this, please let me know! I would love some input on how to price things like the Dissy and splinter rifle or a better way to analyze HP inflicted.

I  have split this analysis into 4 parts. The first two parts are Weapon VS Infantry (analyzing Wounds Inflicted and Wounds/Weapon Cost), and the second two parts are Weapons VS AV (analyzing HP Inflicted and HP/Weapon Cost).

Weapon VS Infantry

Total Wounds Inflicted

MEQ     Wounds
Blaster 0.56
Dark Lance 0.56
Dissy        1.33
HWB        0.11
Heat lance 0.56
Shardcarbine 0.33
SC        0.67
Splinter Rifle 0.22
Void lance 0.56

TEQ      Wounds
Blaster 0.37
Dark Lance 0.37
Dissy 0.89
HWB 0.06
Heat lance 0.37
Shardcarbine 0.17
SC 0.33
Splinter Rifle 0.11
Void lance 0.37

GEQ Wounds
Blaster 0.56
Dark Lance 0.56
Dissy 1.67
HWB 0.44
Heat lance 0.56
Shardcarbine 1.00
SC 2.00
Splinter Rifle 0.67
Void lance 0.56

NWEQ Wounds
Blaster 0.09
Dark Lance 0.09
Dissy 0.17
HWB 0.04
Heat lance 0.07
Shardcarbine 0.17
SC 0.33
Splinter Rifle 0.11
Void lance 0.09

WKEQ Wounds
Blaster 0.33
Dark Lance 0.33
Dissy 0.33
HWB 0.04
Heat lance 0.11
Shardcarbine 0.11
SC 0.22
Splinter Rifle 0.07
Void lance 0.44

Wounds Inflicted/ Weapon Cost

MEQ Wounds/Cost
Blaster 0.04
Dark Lance 0.03
HWB 0.01
Heat lance 0.06
SC 0.04

TEQ Wounds/Cost
Blaster 0.025
Dark Lance 0.019
HWB 0.006
Heat lance 0.037
SC 0.022

GEQ Wounds/Cost
Blaster 0.04
Dark Lance 0.03
HWB 0.04
Heat lance 0.06
SC 0.13

NWEQ Wounds/Cost
Blaster 0.006
Dark Lance 0.005
HWB 0.004
Heat lance 0.007
SC 0.022

WKEQ Wounds/Cost
Blaster 0.022
Dark Lance 0.017
HWB 0.004
Heat lance 0.011
SC 0.015

Weapons VS AV

Total HP Inflicted

AV 11 Total HP
Blaster 0.61
Dark Lance 0.61
Dissy 0.33
HWB 0.61
Void lance 0.78

AV 12 Total HP
Blaster 0.44
Dark Lance 0.44
Dissy 0.00
HWB 0.61
Void lance 0.61

AV 13 Total HP
Blaster 0.44
Dark Lance 0.44
Dissy 0.00
HWB 0.61
Void lance 0.61

AV 14 Total HP
Blaster 0.44
Dark Lance 0.44
Dissy 0.00
HWB 0.61
Void lance 0.61

HP/Weapon Cost

AV 11 Total HP/Cost
Blaster 0.04
Dark Lance 0.03
HWB 0.06

AV 12 Total HP/Cost
Blaster 0.03
Dark Lance 0.02
HWB 0.06

AV 13 Total HP/Cost
Blaster 0.03
Dark Lance 0.02
HWB 0.06

AV 14 Total HP/Cost
Blaster 0.03
Dark Lance 0.02
HWB 0.06

I appologize for the horrible formatting. If anyone has some suggestions on formatting, please let me know.
Back to top Go down
Kantalla
Sybarite
avatar

Posts : 461
Join date : 2015-12-21

PostSubject: Re: Shooting Weapon Analysis   Wed Aug 24 2016, 07:51

I have done an analysis somewhat similar to this, but with a few key differences.

Firstly, I don't like a couple of assumptions you are making:
1) No cover saves will make any weapon with good AP look really good. Whereas in reality, most units will be sitting in cover. I would suggest assuming a 5+ cover save should apply.
2) Assuming a 12" range will make Splinter Rifles look better than they should. If you imagine half of the time you fire at 12" range and half the time at 12-24" range then 1.5 shots per Splinter Rifle would be reasonable.

Then we get on to the structural things:
1) The cost of a weapon upgrade is not a good basis for comparison. There are several reasons for this, such as different prices for different units, some models with one weapon and others with another, zero cost upgrades and so on. For the assault units you can buy just Incubi, so the approach worked, but for shooting you can't buy just a Blaster, so you need to work out viable units (there aren't as many as you might fear) when you do the analysis.
2) Vehicles are complicated, and I have a good method for working them out, but I think lets get infantry sorted first.

Will see if I can track down a table tutorial, however, a screen grab from Excel, or a Google Docs link is probably the tidiest way to handle stuff.

_________________
From a midnight sky, there is a searing flash, a boom, a brief moment of destruction, and then it is gone.
Kabal of Lightning Strikes - Project Log
Drukhari damage output analysis
Back to top Go down
Kantalla
Sybarite
avatar

Posts : 461
Join date : 2015-12-21

PostSubject: Re: Shooting Weapon Analysis   Wed Aug 24 2016, 08:44

Here is an example of the approach I would suggest

Against GEQ
Average wounds = Shots * Hit rate * Wound rate * Failed save rate * Unsaved FNP rate
Splinter Rifle = 1.5 * 2/3 * 1/2 * 2/3 * 1 = 0.33 unsaved wounds
Blaster = 1 * 2/3 * 5/6 * 2/3 * 1 = 0.37 unsaved wounds
Note I am assuming 50% of the time Splinter Rifle is in Rapid Fire range, and 5+ cover.

Unit 1 = 5 Kabalite Warriors (40 points)
Unit 1 = 5 Kabalite Warriors with Blaster (55 points)

Unit 1 wounds = 5 * 0.33 = 1.67 unsaved wounds
Unit 1 unsaved wounds per 100 points = 1.67*100/40 = 4.17

Unit 2 wounds = 4 * 0.33 + 1 * 0.37 = 1.70 unsaved wounds
Unit 2 unsaved wounds per 100 points = 1.70*100/55 = 3.10

So that quick example would show that against GEQ, adding a Blaster makes the unit less efficient.

A slightly more complete list:


That uses the assumptions I have above, plus to save myself a minute, I have pretended Dark Lances are Blasters, in case you are confused by a Ravager with 3 Blasters.

Hands up who picked Mandrakes and Beastmasters as our most efficient units for shooting at Guardsmen!

_________________
From a midnight sky, there is a searing flash, a boom, a brief moment of destruction, and then it is gone.
Kabal of Lightning Strikes - Project Log
Drukhari damage output analysis


Last edited by Kantalla on Wed Aug 24 2016, 09:44; edited 1 time in total
Back to top Go down
Count Adhemar
Dark Lord of Granbretan
avatar

Posts : 6785
Join date : 2012-04-26
Location : London

PostSubject: Re: Shooting Weapon Analysis   Wed Aug 24 2016, 09:30

Like Kantalla, the way I would do this would be to take each weapon in isolation and work out it's effectiveness against the various targets without reference to the point cost. You can then take a few examples of typical units, work out the total casualties from their loadout and divide by the unit cost. I also think it would be useful to include stats both with and without cover.

_________________

You have been weighed, you have been measured, and you have been found wanting. In what world could you possibly beat me?
Back to top Go down
BetrayTheWorld
Trueborn
avatar

Posts : 2665
Join date : 2013-04-04

PostSubject: Re: Shooting Weapon Analysis   Wed Aug 24 2016, 14:35

I have to echo pretty much all of Kantalla's points as well. I think the best way to compare it is on a unit cost basis rather than a weapon cost basis, since that's what's most practical. We can buy 5 warriors + a blaster. We can't buy just a blaster.

@Kantalla : Is the Wr supposed to stand for wraithknight?

Also, thank you BOTH for taking the time to do this! I think I'll save that image for future reference. Wink

_________________
Back to top Go down
fisheyes
Wych
avatar

Posts : 813
Join date : 2016-02-18

PostSubject: Re: Shooting Weapon Analysis   Wed Aug 24 2016, 17:04

Kantalla, thanks for posting that! Already we can start drawing some conclusions I would not have guessed at. Care to do some further posts with that lovely formatting?

What are some other common units that should be analyzed? I would love to compare some commonly debated units (Ravager vs HWB Scourges), are there any other typical loadouts that people can think of comparing?
Back to top Go down
Kantalla
Sybarite
avatar

Posts : 461
Join date : 2015-12-21

PostSubject: Re: Shooting Weapon Analysis   Wed Aug 24 2016, 21:00

Betray - "Wr" in my table is a Necron Wraith (with 4+ reanimation protocols). Wraithknight and Riptide are obvious things to add to the table.

More than happy to post some extra data up there. Perhaps a no cover and 4+ cover option to add to the 5+ version would be of interest. Any extra units of interest would be useful to add as well.

When I did my vehicle analysis, what I found was Scourges are by far our best option for killing vehicles, but of course that doesn't take into account the fact they generally need to come from reserve, deep strike risks and their inherent fragility. It might justify a new post to be fair to explain the methodology I recommend for working out damage to vehicles, which I will see if I can do over the next couple of days

_________________
From a midnight sky, there is a searing flash, a boom, a brief moment of destruction, and then it is gone.
Kabal of Lightning Strikes - Project Log
Drukhari damage output analysis
Back to top Go down
Kantalla
Sybarite
avatar

Posts : 461
Join date : 2015-12-21

PostSubject: Re: Shooting Weapon Analysis   Thu Aug 25 2016, 11:29

I have made an update to the anti-infantry efficiency analysis.

Here are three tables, covering the unsaved wounds inflicted per 100 points of Dark Eldar shooting. The tables are for no cover save, 5+ cover and 4+ cover (I find 6+ cover to be pretty rare). Each table is sorted by efficiency against Space Marine equivalents.

I have added a Riptide and Wraithknight to the targets considered. The Wraithknight is assumed to have dual Heavy Wraithcannons, so no invulnerable save.

No Cover Save


5+ Cover Save


4+ Cover Save


Largely, I think the analysis confirms the common list building approaches we see on the forum. In most games I have played recently, infantry that aren't mechanised tend to be sitting in cover. The exception being Drop Pod Marines who can often be out in the open. Against targets in cover all of the massed Splinter fire options are similarly effective, with Kabalite Warriors in Venoms have Objective Secured, and being the hardest to kill. Disintegrator cannon Ravagers do perform well and are also a good option - but we are not normally short of anti-infantry firepower.

There are some good performers that might surprise a few people. Mandrakes are very good against GEQ, and the analysis doesn't give any extra credit for Soul Blaze. A unit of all Beastmasters as a shooting unit is also surprisingly efficient (the best option for shooting a Wraithknight in 4+ cover, which is still woefully bad as you need just over 1200 points of them to take down a full health Wraithknight on average).

_________________
From a midnight sky, there is a searing flash, a boom, a brief moment of destruction, and then it is gone.
Kabal of Lightning Strikes - Project Log
Drukhari damage output analysis
Back to top Go down
Jimsolo
Dracon
avatar

Posts : 3063
Join date : 2013-10-31
Location : Illinois

PostSubject: Re: Shooting Weapon Analysis   Thu Aug 25 2016, 14:40

The sslyth seem pretty lackluster.

Would it be possible to get our flyers on there, and/or the Tantalus?

For the WK, did you assume a ranged loadout, or a melee one with a 5++?

Thanks for this!
Back to top Go down
dumpeal
Wych
avatar

Posts : 534
Join date : 2015-02-13
Location : Québec

PostSubject: Re: Shooting Weapon Analysis   Thu Aug 25 2016, 15:01

The Sslyths seems lackluster in this configuration. (6 sslyths, 4 llhamaean). But how about 9 sslyths ans a single lhamaean?

Plus, I would find it interesting to see how the efficiency change, with a splinter rack.
Back to top Go down
Voidgazer
Hellion
avatar

Posts : 25
Join date : 2016-03-13
Location : Travelling around the globe

PostSubject: Re: Shooting Weapon Analysis   Thu Aug 25 2016, 15:05

A really helpful table o thanks to all who made it happen, i sure will have plenty of use for this as a new DE and 40k player.

@jimsolo : Kantalla mentioned it in the beginning right before the 1st table, "I have added a Riptide and Wraithknight to the targets considered. The Wraithknight is assumed to have dual Heavy Wraithcannons, so no invulnerable save."
Back to top Go down
Jimsolo
Dracon
avatar

Posts : 3063
Join date : 2013-10-31
Location : Illinois

PostSubject: Re: Shooting Weapon Analysis   Thu Aug 25 2016, 16:52

Thanks.

Dump- the recommended configuration seems to usually be 1:1, sometimes with an extra sslyth to pad the wounds. I assume that's why he did it that way.
Back to top Go down
Kantalla
Sybarite
avatar

Posts : 461
Join date : 2015-12-21

PostSubject: Re: Shooting Weapon Analysis   Thu Aug 25 2016, 21:27

@Jimsolo wrote:
The sslyth seem pretty lackluster.
Would it be possible to get our flyers on there, and/or the Tantalus?
Flyers and Tantalus can indeed be added. My reason for skipping them (and Medusae for that matter), was trying to come up with a reasonable assumption for how many hits from a blast or template weapon.

The Sslyth in the configuration I listed them are there as an assault unit, as you had suggested, who can also shoot reasonably well. Similar logic in including the Reavers.

@dumpeal wrote:
The Sslyths seems lackluster in this configuration. (6 sslyths, 4 llhamaean). But how about 9 sslyths ans a single lhamaean?

Plus, I would find it interesting to see how the efficiency change, with a splinter rack.
Can add those in as well.

My hesitation on Splinter Racks is with the draft FAQ ruling on Jink, Raider gunboats will be quite inefficient, but until they are official, Splinter Racks will increase the efficiency by 1/3.

_________________
From a midnight sky, there is a searing flash, a boom, a brief moment of destruction, and then it is gone.
Kabal of Lightning Strikes - Project Log
Drukhari damage output analysis
Back to top Go down
fisheyes
Wych
avatar

Posts : 813
Join date : 2016-02-18

PostSubject: Re: Shooting Weapon Analysis   Fri Aug 26 2016, 01:49

I am very surprised that our cheap splinter weapons are often our most efficient weapon vs this large range of infantry. Despite the Dissy Ravager doing so well, its relative lack of versatility (ie ObSec, transport) kinds kills it for me. I may be converting mine back to Dark Lances.

I also would like to see the Razorwing, but the amount of weapons/missiles will make the numbers tricky. Also, lets try to stick to common unit configurations so that this doesnt devolve into running every permutation possible.

Blast weapons are a tricky one to model. I think we just need to come up with a reasonable amount of hits/blast to approximate, because we simply cant account for unit geometry/spacing/unit size/base size/etc. I think 2/blast is fair, given the ability for the template to just completely miss.

Kantalla, those tables are simply awesome. Thanks for creating such an amazing reference, and I am looking forward to some vs AV tables in the future.
Back to top Go down
Kantalla
Sybarite
avatar

Posts : 461
Join date : 2015-12-21

PostSubject: Re: Shooting Weapon Analysis   Sat Aug 27 2016, 12:59

Time for an update.

I have added some new units to the tables:
Razorwing with Monoscythe Missiles
Razorwing with Necrotoxin Missiles
Razorwing (no missiles)
Razorwing (no missiles) with Splinter Cannon
Voidraven with Void Mine and Dark Scythes
Voidraven with Void Mine and Void Lances
Voidraven with Dark Scythes
Voidraven with Void Lances
4 Medusae with a Haemonculus and WWP
Splinter Rack Gunboat (10 Kabalite Warriors in Raider with Splinter Racks)
Talos with Splinter Cannon
Cronos with Spirit Syphon (and Probe)
Court of the Archon with 9 Sslyth 1 Lhamaean

No Cover Save


5+ Cover Save


4+ Cover Save


Assumptions used:
Splinter Rifles - 50% of the time in Rapid Fire range, so average shots 1.5
Blast weapons - average hits 2 models for GEQ/MEQ/TEQ, 1.5 for Wraiths and 1 for Riptide and Wraithknight
Large Blast weapons - average hits 3.5 models for GEQ/MEQ/TEQ, 2 for Wraiths and 1 for Riptide and Wraithknight
Template weapons - average hits 2 models for GEQ/MEQ/TEQ, 2 for Wraiths and 1 for Riptide and Wraithknight
No Snap Fire allowed for in units with mass missiles
Wraiths - 4+ Reanimation Protocols
Wraithknight - no invulnerable save (dual Heavy Wraithcannons)

So, what does it tell us? We have a few one use options, like the Missiles or Bomb from the Voidraven, which score quite highly, but then drop back substantially after their payload is fired. I included Medusae with Haemonculus as an option that people taking a Grotesquerie might like, as it provides a fairly points efficient use for the Haemonculus, somewhat removing the tax from the Grotesquerie.

Overall, as unexciting as the conclusions might be, against almost all kinds of infantry, Venoms full of Kabalite Warriors or Raiders (until draft FAQ is adopted in your area) are reliably up there with the best options we have available, have Objective Secured, and are harder to destroy than most of the alternative options.

However, some of the more interesting options that we don't seem to see that often in Dark Eldar lists, like Mandrakes, Disintegrator Ravagers, Medusae and Razorwings are all decent if a bit more situational than the stock units.

_________________
From a midnight sky, there is a searing flash, a boom, a brief moment of destruction, and then it is gone.
Kabal of Lightning Strikes - Project Log
Drukhari damage output analysis
Back to top Go down
 
Shooting Weapon Analysis
View previous topic View next topic Back to top 
Page 1 of 1

Permissions in this forum:You cannot reply to topics in this forum
THE DARK CITY :: 

COMMORRAGH TACTICA

 :: Dark Eldar Tactics
-
Jump to: